RealClearPolitics adds Polymarket data to its election forecasting maps

The post Polymarket Applies for US License to Offer Margin Trading appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The filing would let Polymarket users open positions without posting full collateral, following Kalshi’s FCM-backed perpetuals launch. Polymarket has applied for a US futures commission merchant license to offer margin trading on its prediction markets, Bloomberg reported Thursday. The move would let traders open positions without posting full collateral upfront. The application, filed July 3 with the National Futures Association through Polymarket affiliate Coming Home GBA LLC, seeks FCM registration, according to documents cited by Bloomberg. Polymarket must also win approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to amend its rulebook to permit non-fully collateralized trades, the filing shows. A Polymarket representative confirmed to Bloomberg that the application had been submitted, with the goal of attracting more institutional investors to the platform. Under the propos

The filing would let Polymarket users open positions without posting full collateral, following Kalshi's FCM-backed perpetuals launch.

The post Polymarket sees 99%+ odds BTC stays above $60K by July 12 amid oil risks appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Polymarket’s BTC July 12 Strike Ladder Holds Firm After Oil-Spike Macro Shock Headlines On Polymarket’s “Bitcoin above ___ on July 12?” ladder, traders are pricing a high probability that BTC stays above lower strikes into expiry, with $340,873 matched and little change in the top lines. The latest trigger was a report describing Bitcoin holding above $62,000 even as oil rose on renewed US-Iran fighting—testing how macro shock headlines translate into per-strike odds. Key Takeaways Polymarket’s leading line implies BTC will be above $52,000 on July 12 (Yes 99.95% / No 0.05%). The catalyst was a report linking renewed US-Iran hostilities and higher oil to macro risk, but the ladder still clusters around “above $60k” as the baseline expectation. The market resolves on 2026-07-12 16:00:00 UTC; the 24h and 7d summary shows 0.0 pp change with stable, low-vol pricing. A July

The post Kalshi vs Polymarket 2026: Fees, Markets & US Legality appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Two years ago the choice in the prediction market space was pretty straightforward. Polymarket was the crypto-native platform Americans weren’t meant to touch while Kalshi was the regulated US exchange that played by the book. Fast forward to today and there are multiple other prediction market platforms like Rothera, Predictdotfun, Opinion, Limitless etc that are looking to bite away at the market share. Despite competition ramping up, Kalshi and Polymarket are by far the leaders in terms of volume, number of trades and open interest.  The line from two years ago, however, has mostly dissolved. Polymarket now runs a CFTC-licensed US arm and despite Kalshi fighting roughly a dozen states in the US over whether sports contracts count as gambling, the latest numbers on combined trading volume between the two platforms hit $47.5 billion in the month of June alone this year. That’s more tha

The post Polymarket lifts US-Iran invasion Yes to 16.5% after renewed attacks appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Joerg Hiller Jul 10, 2026 10:11 A report says U.S. and Iranian forces traded attacks for a second day after Trump said the ceasefire was “over,” with U.S. strikes on about 90 coastal targets and Iran hitting sites linked to U.S. Polymarket lifts US-Iran invasion Yes to 16.5% after renewed attacks Polymarket Reprices “U.S. Invade Iran Before 2027?” After Renewed Attack Headlines On Polymarket, traders put the chance of a “Yes” on “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” at 16.5% (No at 83.5%) on $40.25M matched volume, up 5.0 percentage points from 11.5%. The repricing follows reports of renewed U.S.-Iran attacks, and the move shows how the contract reacts to escalation headlines while still pricing “invasion” as the clear minority outcome. Key Takeaways Polymarket’s leading outcome is No at 83.5%, with Yes at 16.5% for a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027.

Polymarket is seeking U.S. approval to offer margin trading, marking its latest move to expand under a regulated derivatives framework. The post Polymarket seeks US regulatory approval for margin trading appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

The post Polymarket Files for Margin Trading License as US Expansion Accelerates appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Polymarket files for a U.S. FCM license to offer margin trading as CFTC approval and added user checks remain required. Polymarket is seeking U.S. approval to offer margin trading, according to Bloomberg. The move could let users trade prediction markets without posting full capital upfront. The application was filed on July 3 through Coming Home GBA LLC. The affiliate applied for a futures commission merchant license with the National Futures Association. Polymarket also needs approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That approval would allow changes to its rulebook for non-fully funded trading. The filing shows how prediction markets are moving closer to regulated financial markets. It also marks another step in Polymarket’s U.S. expansion plans. Polymarket Seeks U.S. Margin Trading Approval Polymarket operates prediction markets tied to real-world even

The post Wall Street banks restrict staff trading on prediction markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Major Wall Street banks are tightening employee rules for prediction markets as concerns grow over the use of confidential information on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. Summary Wall Street banks are restricting employee prediction-market trades as concerns about confidential information use increase. Goldman Sachs bars contracts tied to finance, politics, macroeconomics, geopolitics, and bank-specific events for staff. Federal cases and congressional probes are pushing platforms and employers toward tighter surveillance and compliance. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America have added or updated restrictions covering event contracts, according to a Reuters report. The policies aim to reduce insider trading and conflict-of-interest risks. Goldman Sachs limits financial and political trades Goldman Sachs has prohibited employees from trading pr