The post South Korean Won: Gains hinge on supportive flows against US Dollar – OCBC appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Christopher Wong notes that Korean Won strength remains largely flow-driven, with USD/KRW dropping below 1,500 on offshore fund repatriation and official vigilance. While bearish momentum persists, Wong expects the pullback to moderate and sees a sustained break below 1,500 as requiring a benign backdrop for the Dollar, Oil and equities. Flow-driven strength faces key levels “KRW continued to outperform, with USD/KRW falling from almost 1,560 at the start of the month to sub-1500 briefly yesterday before rebounding. The move looks flow-driven rather than risk or macro-driven.” “KRW strengthened despite a less friendly macro backdrop, including the oil spike, renewed geopolitical concerns and KOSPI underperformance. USD/KRW appears to have been weighed by inflows and repatriation of funds raised offshore, while official vigilance has also stayed high as Korea shifts i
The post United States Dollar Index falls as Middle East calm cools inflation fears appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, is down 0.14% to 100.93 on Thursday as tensions in the Middle East ease, driving Oil prices lower and trimming Federal Reserve (Fed) hawkish bets spurred by the energy shock. DXY slips as Hormuz calm drags Oil, Fed bets lower Geopolitics grabbed the attention after the US and Iran exchanged attacks during the last two days. The US President Donald Trump is growing impatient about the outcome of the negotiations with Iran, adding that the agreement was “over.” The US military attacked 90 military positions near the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, intending to weaken Iran’s ability to attack vessels transiting through the strait. Meanwhile, Iran targeted US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced the completion of the task, which weighed on
The post South Korean Won: Oil-linked range view into BoK meeting – Commerzbank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay argues that elevated South Korean inflation strengthens the case for a 25bp Bank of Korea (BoK) hike to 2.75% on 16 July. USD/KRW has fallen from 1560 to 1506 on earlier Oil weakness, but the bank now expects the pair to trade in a 1500–1520 range, with Oil prices and global risk sentiment remaining key drivers. Won pressured by inflation and Oil “South Korea’s inflation remained elevated in June, reinforcing the view that the Bank of Korea (BoK) is on course to hike rates next week. Headline CPI inflation was slightly higher at 3.2% yoy from 3.1% in May, marking the highest reading since December 2023. It remained well above BoK’s 2% target.” “Other factors expected to keep inflationary pressures firm include the weak won and robust wage growth linked to the AI-driven semiconductor boom.” “The latest inflation report strengthens the case for Bo
The post European Central Bank: September hike prospects stay firm – Nordea appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Nordea’s Jan von Gerich argues that the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to continue tightening policy, with the outlook heavily dependent on Middle East developments and energy prices. He notes that a July move is now unlikely after lower inflation and falling Oil, but sees a September rate hike as probable, in line with current market pricing. ECB path tied to energy risks “The ECB outlook still hinges to a large extent on the developments in the Middle East and in energy prices.” “While a July hike is likely to be off the table without a significant jump in energy prices, a September rate move looks much more likely.” “However, the account supported the view that even a quick end to the conflict would not automatically mean that the ECB would be done hiking rates.” “The major fall seen in energy prices on the back of hopes of a peace in the Middle East and lower-than
The post Equities: Growth downgrades and rotation theme – BNY appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has trimmed its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.0%, with uneven impacts across energy exporters, tech economies and low-income importers, influencing global equities. The disinflation trend appears stalled as headline inflation is projected to re-accelerate before easing. Yu sees markets wrestling with stretched valuations, fading momentum and a shift from acceleration to consolidation. IMF downgrades and stagflation concerns “The International Monetary Fund has inched its 2026 global growth forecast down again to a sluggish 3.0%. Growth is projected to rebound to 3.4% in 2027, but that is still below the average of 3.5% seen in 2024 and 2025.” “Global headline inflation is seen rising from 4.1% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2026 before easing to 3.9% in 2027, suggesting the disinflation trend has stalled.” “Stagflation risks remain in pro
Escalating Gulf tensions highlight the fragility of global energy security and underscore the vulnerability of risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
The post Saudi Arabia and GCC condemn Iran’s attacks as oil surge rattles crypto markets appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
Iran's oil export surge amid US tensions could destabilize energy markets, impact inflation, and trigger regulatory scrutiny on crypto.
The post Iran ships 10 million barrels of oil amid US blockade threat, rattling crypto and energy markets appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
The post New Zealand Dollar: Rate support constrained by Oil drag – OCBC appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Christopher Wong highlights that the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has strengthened after a hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate hike, but higher Oil prices are capping gains. With the RBNZ starting a tightening cycle and growth expected to rebound in 2H26, Wong sees AUD/NZD nearing a peak, though a sustained decline needs stronger New Zealand growth and a more favourable energy backdrop. Hawkish RBNZ meets energy headwinds “The NZD strengthened after a hawkish RBNZ rate hike, though gains were capped by renewed terms-of-trade headwinds from higher oil prices. The RBNZ raised the Official Cash Rate by 25bps to 2.50%, delivering its first hike since May 2023. Forward guidance was hawkish but data-dependent, with the central bank noting that further rate increases may be needed to return inflation to target.” “Domestic data point to a rebound in GDP growth in 2H26 as the dr
The escalating US-Iran conflict could destabilize global markets, complicate sanctions enforcement, and intensify crypto's geopolitical role.
The post US-Iran conflict escalates with strikes and drone attacks in Persian Gulf, rattling oil and crypto markets appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
