The post Canadian Dollar sees through its own record surplus appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Canada delivered the kind of trade headline that should have put a firm bid under the Loonie, and the currency barely noticed. Statistics Canada reported the merchandise trade surplus widened to $4.2 billion in May, a four-year high built on record exports worth $77.1 billion, yet the Canadian Dollar drifted lower on the session as USD/CAD held its ground near the 1.4200 handle. A surplus with an expiry date The disconnect makes sense the moment you look at what actually built the surplus. May’s export run was the fourth straight monthly gain, but it was a price story rather than a volume story, and the price doing the heavy lifting was Crude Oil, which has since surrendered most of the war premium that inflated those shipment values. In real, price-adjusted terms, exports were essentially flat on the month, and one bank desk was blunt enough to flag the print as the likely high watermark
The post USD/CAD Price Forecast: Buyers retain the upper hand even as momentum weakens appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
USD/CAD edges lower on Tuesday even as the US Dollar (USD) holds firm, with the Canadian Dollar (CAD) drawing support from a modest rebound in crude Oil prices following renewed attacks on commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.4188. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil is trading around $70.30, up nearly 2.50% on the day. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is treading water near 101.00. However, diverging monetary policy expectations between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) could limit further gains in the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Markets continue to expect the Fed to raise interest rates later this year to bring inflation back to its 2% target, even as softer-than-expected US labor market data have red
The post Canadian Dollar steady as trade surplus, Fed outlook cap USD/CAD appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
USD/CAD trades around 1.4205 on Tuesday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day, as investors balance encouraging Canadian economic data against a US Dollar (USD) that remains supported by monetary policy expectations and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Canada released stronger-than-expected trade figures. Merchandise exports rose 0.9% in May, while imports edged down 0.2%, allowing the trade surplus to widen to CAD$4.24B from an upwardly revised CAD$3.41B in April. This marks Canada’s third consecutive monthly trade surplus. Meanwhile, the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) eased to 59.7 from 61.3 but remained firmly in expansion territory, signalling that economic activity continues to grow. Despite the upbeat domestic data, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) struggles to gain traction, although higher Oil prices are providing some support. West Texas Intermediate (WT
The post Canadian Dollar: Consolidation with stretched USD positioning – Scotiabank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is effectively flat versus the US Dollar (USD) and trading close to their fair value estimate around 1.4158. They expect the recent deterioration in spreads to stabilize, easing downside pressure on the CAD. Short-term, USD/CAD is consolidating with an overbought USD, facing resistance near 1.4250/00 and support at 1.4150 and 1.4075/80. Fair value and range parameters “The CAD is effectively flat against the USD and outperforming, if only marginally, most of its core peers as a result. Factors driving the CAD are relatively steady; our fair value model for the CAD indicates equilibrium of 1.4158, slightly weaker for the CAD than yesterday, suggesting that the CAD is about where it should be from a fundamental point of view.” “More broadly, we think the deterioration in spreads seen s
