Polymarket odds lift to 78.5% for Fed hold in July as mortgage rates rise
The post Polymarket odds lift to 78.5% for Fed hold in July as mortgage rates rise appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Ted Hisokawa Jul 10, 2026 18:10 Freddie Mac said the average 30-year fixed U.S. mortgage rate rose to 6.49% this week, alongside firmer Treasury yields. Polymarket odds lift to 78.5% for Fed hold in July as mortgage rates rise Polymarket’s July Fed Ladder Reprices After Mortgage-Rate and 10-Year Yield Uptick On Polymarket’s “Fed Decision in July?” ladder, traders are now pricing a 78.5% chance of “No change,” up 7.0 points from 71.5%, with $49.1M matched. The move comes as mortgage-rate headlines hit, and the contract’s per-outcome Yes/No odds show where disagreement concentrates across hike vs hold paths. Key Takeaways Polymarket’s leading outcome is “No change” at 78.5% implied odds (Yes 78.5% / No 21.5%). Mortgage rates ticking higher is a plausible catalyst for a higher-for-longer bias, but the ladder still concentrates probability in a hold rath