Euro: Political risks but downside bias – ING
The post Euro: Political risks but downside bias – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Francesco Pesole at ING discusses Euro resilience despite French political developments, including Marine Le Pen’s 2027 bid and expectations of an RN win. He sees limited immediate impact on the Euro, keeps no political premium in EUR forecasts, and highlights a downside bias for EUR/USD, with Swedish inflation and EUR/SEK dynamics also in focus. France politics and Nordic spillovers “Marine Le Pen announced she will run in the 2027 presidential election after a court decision yesterday. We discuss the outlook for French politics, rates and FX in this note. This court decision doesn’t change much for the euro considering markets are likely to be already pricing in an RN win in April.” “Surely, there are risks that during the campaign OATs will experience pockets of stress around fiscal concerns, spilling over into the euro. But our baseline assumption is that RN will be careful not to unnerve th