Kalshi traders think Hormuz traffic won’t return to normal this year
The post Kalshi traders think Hormuz traffic won’t return to normal this year appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Vessels off the coast of the Khor Fakkan Container Terminal, the only natural deep-sea port in the region and one of the major container ports in Sharjah Emirate, along the Gulf of Oman on June 28, 2026. – | Afp | Getty Images President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran is “over” after the U.S. conducted strikes against the Islamic Republic following attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Now, traders on prediction market platform Kalshi are recalibrating their outlook for when they see traffic in the passageway returning to normal. Speculators now see just a 44% chance that traffic flows will return to normal by Dec. 1. The earliest they forecast normal traffic by is Jan. 1, 2027, when odds rose to 53%. Kalshi defines normal traffic flows as a 7-day moving average of transit calls through the strait above 60. The outcome is verified using data re