#ois

The post US Dollar: Fed pricing questioned as disinflation looms – MUFG appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. MUFG’s Derek Halpenny argues that June FOMC minutes may already be stale as weaker labour data and lower energy prices challenge the Fed’s hawkish dot plot. He sees OIS pricing as too aggressive, with rate hikes over-priced and a rate cut by March 2027 more likely than another hike. Dollar strength, he says, has been driven by rate spreads and leveraged long positioning, but this may reverse if disinflation resumes. Fed expectations and Dollar positioning “The FX market is increasingly being driven once again by rates spreads with our rolling correlations indicating that and the Fed rate hike pricing has been the key driver of renewed US dollar buying. A lot of this pricing appears driven by the perception that Fed Chair Warsh has been hawkish. But apart from reaffirming the pursuit of achieving the Fed’s 2% inflation goal there is limited evidence to point to of Warsh being par

The post New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ hike seen as moderate tightening – MUFG appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. MUFG’s Derek Halpenny reports that the New Zealand Dollar strengthened after the RBNZ raised its policy rate by 25 bps to 2.50%, the first increase since May 2023. He notes OIS had largely priced the move and more hikes, but MUFG expects only two additional increases by March 2027. Communication is viewed as consistent with moderate tightening, with fragile domestic conditions limiting follow‑through NZD gains. RBNZ decision and NZD reaction “The only notable move for the US dollar this morning has been weaker versus the New Zealand dollar which was in response to the decision of the RBNZ to raise the key policy rate by 25bps to 2.50%, the first hike since May 2023. The OIS market yesterday had 18bps priced for today and 85bps over the coming twelve months.” “We expected this move, but have only two further hikes priced by March 2027, slightly less than implied by the OIS curv