#retreat

Veteran crypto analyst Bob Loukas says Bitcoin has entered the final stage of its current four-year cycle, but warned that the market may still need another leg lower before a durable cycle bottom is in place. In his latest “4-Year Journey” update, published on June 4, Loukas framed Bitcoin’s recent retest of its February lows as a largely expected development rather than a break from historical cycle behavior. He argued that Bitcoin’s rebound into May, when price approached the low-$80,000 range after a decline toward $60,000 in February, looked like a countertrend move inside a broader bear-market structure. “A cycle very rarely, and I mean less than 10%, probably more like 5%, will end very early and also on the first significant decline from the high,” Loukas said. “There’s always a retest. There’s generally always a lower low, at least one lower low, if not a second lower low.” Loukas said Bitcoin peaked in October and later broke below its 10-month moving average, which he treats