#td securities

The post US Dollar: Inflation focus shapes rate expectations – TD Securities appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. TD Securities economists highlight that higher US Treasury yields followed headlines on Middle East tensions and upcoming supply, with attention now turning to April United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI). They expect core CPI to print above consensus and headline CPI to remain firm, driven by shelter adjustments and energy and food prices, which could influence Dollar and rates pricing over the coming days. US CPI and yields in spotlight “On Tuesday, focus will be on CPI, where our forecast of 0.38% m/m for core is slightly above consensus of 0.36% m/m.” “We also expect a headline print of 0.56% m/m as oil continues to pass through into inflation.” “We look for core CPI inflation to accelerate to 0.38% m/m in April, largely owing to the rebound in shelter prices from methodological adjustments (consensus: 0.3%), with oil prices also likely passing through into airfa

The post BoC: Patience on hikes despite oil shock – TD Securities appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. TD Securities strategists expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to hold its policy rate at 2.25% through 2026 before returning to a 2.75% neutral level in 2027 via 25 bp hikes in January and March. They see higher Oil prices from US–Iran tensions as an inflation shock but argue well-anchored expectations and muted core inflation allow the Bank to look through stronger headline Consumer Price Index (CPI). BoC seen on extended hold then hiking “We look for the Bank of Canada to stay on hold at 2.25% through 2026 before a return to neutral (2.75%) next year, with 25bp hikes in January and March. Higher oil prices resulting from US strikes on Iranian and subsequent threats to global crude supply have introduced a material shock for inflation, but we believe the Bank can remain patient as it waits for more clarity on the geopolitical outlook and spillovers to domestic CPI. We look for inflation