Euro: Yield spreads hint at recovery against US Dollar – MUFG

The post Euro retraces previous gains as Eurozone data paves the way for an ECB pause appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The Euro (EUR) has given away most of the daily gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, returning to the 1.1430 area from session highs at 1.1475, which leaves the pair practically flat on the daily chart. Soft economic data from Eurozone countries, coupled with geopolitical uncertainty and higher Oil prices, is posing a significant weight on the Euro rallies. In Germany, June’s final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) confirmed previous estimations, showing that inflation slowed down to a 2.4% year-over-year (y-o-y) rate from 2.7% in May and from the April peak of 2.9%. Monthly inflation contracted 0.2%, also in line with preliminary estimations, and following a 0.1% contraction in May. At a later time, INSEE revealed that France’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) was also in line with the preliminary estimations. Yearly inflation eased to a 2% rate in June

The post Euro: Range-bound rebound faces key resistance against US Dollar – Societe Generale appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux notes EUR/USD has rebounded after forming an interim low near 1.1325 and moved back into its prior range, signalling limited follow-through on the earlier breakdown. The bank stresses that resistance at 1.1475/1.1500 must be cleared to extend the bounce, while a drop below 1.1390 would risk resuming the broader downtrend. Bounce capped by 1.1500 barrier “EUR/USD has staged a modest rebound after carving out an interim low around 1.1325. The pair has re-integrated within previous range, indicating a lack of follow-through after the recent breakdown.” “However, clear signals of a large up move are not yet visible. The recent pivot high at 1.1475/1.1500 is the first layer of resistance. Overcoming this will be crucial for signalling an extension of the bounce.” “Conversely, there could be a risk of a continuation of the downtren

The post Canadian Dollar: Softer Canada jobs seen weigh against US Dollar – BBH appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad describes USD/CAD trading just below 1.4200 and broadly aligned with US-Canada two-year yield spreads ahead of June labor data. Haddad expects a sharp slowdown in job gains to 10k and sees scope for markets to pare Bank of Canada hike pricing, arguing this adjustment would leave USD/CAD biased higher in coming sessions. Labor data risk skewed to upside “USD/CAD is directionless just under 1.4200.” “Canada’s June labor force survey is the domestic highlight (1:30pm London, 8:30am New York). The economy is expected to add +10.0k jobs in June vs. +87.8k in May and the unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 6.6% for a second straight month.” “USD/CAD is trading in line with US-Canada 2-year bond yield differentials. But there is room for Bank of Canada rate hikes bets (50bps in the next twelve months) to adjust lower, leaving

The post Euro slips as soft Eurozone inflation, Japan pension shift lift Yen appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. EUR/JPY trades around 184.95 on Friday at the time of writing, down 0.35% on the day, as the Japanese Yen (JPY) benefits from renewed demand following the government’s announcement of a potential shift toward greater domestic investment. At the same time, confirmed signs of easing inflation in Germany and France continue to weigh on the Euro (EUR). Final data released on Friday confirmed that inflationary pressures continue to moderate across the Eurozone. In Germany, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 2.4% YoY in June, down from 2.7% in May, while monthly prices declined by 0.2%. In France, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) also slowed to 2% YoY from 2.8% in May, with prices falling 0.3% on a monthly basis. These figures reinforce expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will leave interest rates unchanged at its July meeting as policymakers assess d

The post Gold: Tentative stabilisation on oil relief – OCBC appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. OCBC strategists Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong highlight that Gold has rebounded as Oil prices eased, reducing inflation and Fed tightening concerns, while a softer US Dollar also supported the move. However, ETF holdings remain lower month-to-date, suggesting the recovery is more relief-driven than a decisive return of investor demand. Near term, Gold could trade with a better tone if Oil and yields stay contained. Relief-driven recovery in Gold “Gold. Tentative stabilisation on oil relief. Gold rebounded as oil prices eased from their recent spike, taking some pressure off inflation expectations, yields and Fed tightening concerns. A softer USD also helped the recovery, after the recent selloff across the precious metals complex.” “But ETF flows have yet to confirm a broader investor rebuild. Bloomberg data show total known gold ETF holdings remain lower month-to-date, even though ho

The post New Zealand Dollar eases from three-week highs near 0.5800 as the US Dollar bounces up appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is giving away gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, trading at the 0.5775 area after hitting fresh three-week highs at 0.5794 earlier on the day. The pair, however, is on track for a 1% weekly appreciation, boosted by a hawkish hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) earlier this week. The US Dollar trims losses in a calm Friday European trading session as investors ponder rumours about diplomatic efforts by mediators to bring the US and Iran back to the negotiating table. Rival countries halted their hostilities on Friday after a series of tit-for-tat attacks earlier on the week, although the key Strait of Hormuz remains practically closed, which is keeping investors’ appetite for risk subdued. Earlier on the week, the RBNZ hiked its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.5% and hinted at further mone

The post US Dollar: Geopolitics faded as markets eye rates – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. ING’s Francesco Pesole notes the US Dollar (USD) has been broadly unchanged despite renewed Middle East tensions, as Oil has retraced and risk sentiment improved. He highlights that fading geopolitical risk keeps focus on front-end rate differentials, which have moved against the Dollar in some cases. ING sees upside risks for the Dollar but expects only limited DXY reaction if Oil stays contained. Dollar sidelined by rate focus “Markets are taking a decisively optimistic stance on fresh US-Iran tensions. Multiple reports indicate traffic in Hormuz has dropped to almost zero in the past couple of days, and we have seen effectively no intent of de-escalation from either party.” “The 2-year USD swap rate has erased roughly half of the 10bp jump after the re-escalation – 35bp of tightening is currently priced in for December.” “The dollar is seeing no benefits from this situation. Fading

The post Canadian Dollar: Firmer against US Dollar – Societe Generale appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Societe Generale strategists highlight that USD/CAD is tactically expensive versus the 2-year spread and has recently met resistance near 1.4250 before retracing toward 1.4130. They view this area as potential support but warn that a break lower could trigger a deeper pullback toward 1.4075 and the 50-DMA near 1.3950, framing near-term downside risks for the pair. Key support eyed near 1.4130 “USD/CAD encountered interim resistance around 1.4250 last month and has since retraced toward the upper boundary of its previous broad consolidation range near 1.4130, which could serve as a potential support.” “It will be interesting to observe whether the pair can hold above this support.” “Should a break below 1.4130 materialize, USD/CAD may embark on a deeper pullback.” “The next objectives could be located at projections of 1.4075, followed by the 50-DMA near 1.3950.” “USD/CAD expensive