The post Mexico: Softer CPI backs dovish Banxico case – Societe Generale appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Societe Generale analysts Dev Ashish and Brendan McKenna note that Mexico’s June inflation data surprised to the downside, with headline and core measures moving close to Banxico’s target range. They argue that weak economic activity is weighing on services and core goods prices, reinforcing disinflation. The softer inflation profile strengthens the case for a more dovish Banxico stance, though the policy rate is still expected to stay at 6.50% near term. Disinflation bolsters easing expectations “June inflation surprised decisively to the downside, with headline CPI falling to 3.37% yoy and core inflation to 4.03% yoy. More importantly, the second bi-weekly reading showed headline at 3.18% yoy and core at 3.94% yoy, bringing both measures close to or within Banxico’s target range and providing the strongest evidence yet that underlying inflation pressures are easing.” “Service
The post Federal Reserve: Monetary policy report cites “high inflation” due to tariffs appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) released its monetary policy report on Friday , in which the US central bank acknowledged that inflation remains elevated and that the labor market is broadly stable, a signal that the price stability goal hasn’t been achieved. The report noted that inflation rose further in the spring, indicating that economic activity is expanding solidly despite uncertainty sparked by the war in Iran. M2 money supply growth rates “were moderate and broadly similar to the pace typically observed during the 2010s.” Credit conditions for small businesses and households remained tight, according to the Fed, and Q1 2026 growth was boosted by investment in high tech and government spending. The Fed said that the housing market is stagnant, that the financial system remained sound and resilient, and that asset valuations in stocks, corporate debt, residential
The post European Central Bank: One more hike base case as data soften – OCBC appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
OCBC strategists Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong note that the European Central Bank’s (ECB) June minutes justified the latest rate hike while keeping flexibility on future moves. Since then, Oil prices have fallen sharply and June Consumer Price Index (CPI) surprised on the downside. Their base case remains for one final ECB rate hike in September, though President Lagarde’s comments in Sintra raise the risk that June was a one‑and‑done move. ECB weighs final hike versus pause “The ECB’s June meeting minutes reinforced the Governing Council’s view that the June rate hike was fully justified based on the information available at the time, while maintaining flexibility on future policy moves.” “Since the 11 June meeting, oil prices have fallen sharply and June CPI data surprised on the downside.” “Our base case remains for one final ECB rate hike in September, although E
The post Is the Market Underpricing Inflation? Vanguard Thinks So appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Vanguard Asset Management is buying insurance against stickier US inflation after an oil-market gauge, the crack spread, reached a 2022 high. The firm’s active funds team opened a long position in short-dated inflation-protected Treasuries. It is betting that markets underprice the risk that price pressures linger longer than expected. An Oil-Market Signal Bond Investors Rarely Watch The crack spread measures the difference between the prices of refined fuels and the crude oil used to make them. It is a typical metric for oil traders. For bond investors, it barely registers. However, the crack spread has widened to its highest level since 2022. Crude has slumped since the fragile US-Iran ceasefire. Gasoline has fallen, but has not matched the drop. At the same time, jet fuel, diesel, and fuel oil are also behaving differently in relation to oil prices. It is worth noting that elevate
The post United States: New methodology trims Core PCE inflation – Wells Fargo appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Wells Fargo economists Tom Porcelli and Sarah House discuss upcoming BEA changes to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index that will affect data from 2021 onward. They estimate the new methodology will lower current core PCE by about 0.2 percentage points, bringing May’s rate near 3.2% versus 3.4% published, but still roughly 1 percentage point above the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target. Method tweaks modestly lower core PCE “We want to flag a few methodology changes that are being made to the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the PCE price index. The changes will be rolled out in the BEA’s annual update on September 30 and will impact data from 2021 onward.” “We expect the changes will shave only about 0.2 percentage points off the current y/y run-rate of core PCE. So the impact on actual inflation looks to be modest, but the changes are welcome jus
Brazil's unexpected inflation slowdown may prompt further rate cuts, impacting fiscal policy and crypto investments amid economic uncertainty.
The post Brazil’s annual inflation unexpectedly slows in June as central bank delivers third consecutive rate cut appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
The post Euro: Range-bound rebound faces key resistance against US Dollar – Societe Generale appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux notes EUR/USD has rebounded after forming an interim low near 1.1325 and moved back into its prior range, signalling limited follow-through on the earlier breakdown. The bank stresses that resistance at 1.1475/1.1500 must be cleared to extend the bounce, while a drop below 1.1390 would risk resuming the broader downtrend. Bounce capped by 1.1500 barrier “EUR/USD has staged a modest rebound after carving out an interim low around 1.1325. The pair has re-integrated within previous range, indicating a lack of follow-through after the recent breakdown.” “However, clear signals of a large up move are not yet visible. The recent pivot high at 1.1475/1.1500 is the first layer of resistance. Overcoming this will be crucial for signalling an extension of the bounce.” “Conversely, there could be a risk of a continuation of the downtren
Persistent inflation pressures may force the Fed to prioritize rate hikes over labor market concerns, impacting risk assets and economic growth.
The post Fed officials weigh rate hikes as inflation runs hot at 4.1% appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
The post Canadian Dollar: Firmer against US Dollar – Societe Generale appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Societe Generale strategists highlight that USD/CAD is tactically expensive versus the 2-year spread and has recently met resistance near 1.4250 before retracing toward 1.4130. They view this area as potential support but warn that a break lower could trigger a deeper pullback toward 1.4075 and the 50-DMA near 1.3950, framing near-term downside risks for the pair. Key support eyed near 1.4130 “USD/CAD encountered interim resistance around 1.4250 last month and has since retraced toward the upper boundary of its previous broad consolidation range near 1.4130, which could serve as a potential support.” “It will be interesting to observe whether the pair can hold above this support.” “Should a break below 1.4130 materialize, USD/CAD may embark on a deeper pullback.” “The next objectives could be located at projections of 1.4075, followed by the 50-DMA near 1.3950.” “USD/CAD expensive
