Polymarket, Nasdaq team up on private-company prediction markets

The post Trump NATO rebuke hits Hormuz normalcy bet as Polymarket Yes slips to 58% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Jessie A Ellis Jul 08, 2026 20:03 On July 7, 2026, Donald Trump faulted NATO allies for not backing the U.S. during its conflict with Iran, questioning the alliance’s burden-sharing. Trump NATO rebuke hits Hormuz normalcy bet as Polymarket Yes slips to 58% Trump Slams NATO Allies as Polymarket Reprices Strait of Hormuz Normal-Traffic Odds to 58% U.S. President Donald Trump’s criticism of NATO allies over support during a conflict with Iran coincided with a sharp repricing in Polymarket’s “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?” contract. The market’s implied probability for a return to normal traffic fell to 58% from 85.5%. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices a 58% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by Dec. 31, with No at 42%. Traders marked down the contract after Trump criticized several NATO allies for refusing

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The post Oil rally lifts loonie as Polymarket pegs July Fed hold at 75.5% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Alvin Lang Jul 08, 2026 16:18 Canada’s dollar strengthened as oil prices climbed, with traders bracing for upcoming U.S. jobs data that could reshape expectations for the Fed’s next move. Oil rally lifts loonie as Polymarket pegs July Fed hold at 75.5% Canadian Dollar Rallies With Oil as Polymarket Shifts to 75.5% “No Change” for the July 2026 Fed Decision The Canadian dollar strengthened on an oil rally as traders looked ahead to upcoming U.S. jobs data and the Federal Reserve outlook. On Polymarket, the “Fed Decision in July?” ladder contract moved higher on the “No change” outcome to 75.5% from 71.5%. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices a 75.5% chance of no Fed rate change after the July 2026 meeting. Traders repriced the July Fed path as markets weighed the oil-linked move in the Canadian dollar ahead of U.S. jobs data and the Fed outlook. The contract resolv

The post Trump scraps Iran MoU, oil jumps as Polymarket prices Hormuz normalcy at 0.85% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Joerg Hiller Jul 08, 2026 16:13 U.S. President Donald Trump said the Iran memorandum to end the conflict was “over” and warned of additional strikes Wednesday night, sending oil up and stocks lower. Trump scraps Iran MoU, oil jumps as Polymarket prices Hormuz normalcy at 0.85% Trump Says Iran MoU Is “Over”: Polymarket Shifts to Near-Certain “No” on Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normalizing by July 15 Oil and broader markets swung after President Donald Trump said a memorandum of understanding with Iran to end the conflict was “over” and warned of additional U.S. strikes. On Polymarket, traders heavily favored “No” on the contract asking whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices the “No” outcome at 99.15% and “Yes” at 0.85% for “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?”. Traders repric

The post SpaceX Stock Falls 35% From Peak Even After Nasdaq-100 Inclusion appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. SpaceX (SPCX) shares have fallen as much as 35% from their post-IPO peak of $225.64. The drop came just days after the company joined the Nasdaq-100, as heavy selling offset forced index buying. The stock closed at $148 on July 8, below its $150 debut price for a second straight session. That erased nearly all the gains SpaceX made since its record June 12 listing. A Sell-The-News Pattern for SPCX SpaceX’s Nasdaq-100 inclusion required index-tracking funds to buy shares, even though the company keeps a small public float. That mechanical demand did not stop investors from selling into the news. For a second day running, SPCX has traded under its opening IPO price. Image Source: Trading View This is a familiar pattern, as Palantir saw the same thing happen after it joined the Nasdaq-100 in late 2024. Its shares dropped about 25% over the following weeks. A Trillion-Dollar Valua

The post Trump Kharg Island remarks hit Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes sinks to 4.5% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Rongchai Wang Jul 08, 2026 14:20 A report said Donald Trump claimed the U.S. attacked Iran’s Kharg Island the previous night and floated reinstating a blockade of Iranian ports. Trump Kharg Island remarks hit Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes sinks to 4.5% Trump Cites Kharg Island Attack, Blockade Threat — Polymarket Shifts to “No” on Strait of Hormuz Normalization by July 3 Comments attributed to Donald Trump about a U.S. attack on Iran’s Kharg Island and a possible reinstatement of a blockade of Iranian ports are being reflected in Polymarket pricing on whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31. The contract’s odds have shifted sharply toward a “No” outcome as traders weigh renewed disruption risk. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices a 95.5% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic does not return to normal by July 31, versus 4.5% fo

The post Sheeran serenades England as Polymarket Golden Ball odds stay split at 50% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Alvin Lang Jul 08, 2026 14:15 Ed Sheeran played a private acoustic set for England’s squad at its Kansas City base ahead of Saturday’s World Cup quarter-final vs Norway in Miami. Sheeran serenades England as Polymarket Golden Ball odds stay split at 50% Ed Sheeran Serenades England Before Norway Quarter-Final as Polymarket Golden Ball Odds Stay Flat Ed Sheeran staged a private acoustic performance for England at the team’s Kansas City base as Thomas Tuchel’s squad prepared for a World Cup quarter-final against Norway. The off-pitch buzz landed alongside steady pricing in Polymarket’s “World Cup: Golden Ball Winner” market, where the top line remained unchanged. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices Player A as the leading Golden Ball pick at 50% implied odds. Traders held prices flat as England’s camp drew attention from Sheeran’s visit ahead of a quarter

The post Trump says Iran ceasefire is over as Polymarket trims 2028 Dem odds appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Joerg Hiller Jul 08, 2026 12:47 On Monday, Donald Trump said the Iran ceasefire was “over” and dismissed negotiations as “a waste of time,” signaling dim prospects for de-escalation. Trump says Iran ceasefire is over as Polymarket trims 2028 Dem odds Trump Declares Iran Ceasefire “Over”: Polymarket’s 2028 Democratic Nominee Leader Slips on Geopolitical Jolt Former President Donald Trump said the Iran ceasefire was “over” and called talks a “waste of time,” comments that injected fresh uncertainty into an already volatile foreign-policy backdrop. Polymarket traders nonetheless marked down pricing in the “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028” market, with the leading contract slipping even as activity remained heavy. Key Takeaways Gavin Newsom led Polymarket’s “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028” market at 18.7% implied odds, ahead of Alexandria Ocasio-Cor