Polymarket odds slide to 61.5% on Hormuz traffic normalizing by Dec. 31

The post Polymarket prices BTC above $52K at 99.95% as CLARITY Act chatter builds appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Jessie A Ellis Jul 10, 2026 02:03 A new report says Bitcoin’s rebound is being pitched as a “CLARITY Act” catalyst over the next four weeks, even as no Senate floor vote is scheduled and delays could push action past Aug. 7. Polymarket prices BTC above $52K at 99.95% as CLARITY Act chatter builds Polymarket Holds Steady as CLARITY Act Timeline Becomes a Catalyst Narrative for Bitcoin July 11 Strikes Polymarket’s “Bitcoin above ___ on July 11?” ladder is pricing a high-confidence floor at the lower strikes, with $335,670 traded and the leading $52,000 outcome sitting at 99.95% Yes. The setup comes as traders digest a Washington-focused catalyst narrative tied to the CLARITY Act timeline, but the ladder shows where conviction fades at higher levels. Key Takeaways Polymarket implies a 99.95% chance Bitcoin is above $52,000 on July 11 (and 99.05% above $6

The post Goldman Sachs Limits, but Doesn’t Stop, Employees Using Kalshi and Polymarket appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Goldman Sachs has told employees to confine their prediction market activity to sports and entertainment. The bank hopes to limit compliance risks tied to betting on elections, interest rates, and other market-moving events. The bank issued the policy through an internal memo. It warned that repeated violations could lead to termination, a person familiar with the matter told the Financial Times. Kalshi and Polymarket Face Insider Trading Scrutiny Both platforms have drawn scrutiny over users profiting from advance knowledge of major events. Lookonchain flagged three wallets that netted more than $630,000 betting on Nicolás Maduro’s removal hours before his capture. Nobel Peace Prize organizers separately investigated a possible leak after a run of successful wagers on the eventual winner. Kalshi and Polymarket have since rolled out new rules targeting insider tra

The post Polymarket: Hormuz traffic normal-by-July odds plunge to 4.5% on strikes appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Ted Hisokawa Jul 10, 2026 00:03 US strikes were reported on Bushehr, Chabahar, Bandar Abbas, and Jask, with at least one death in Iranshahr and widespread power outages in Chabahar. Polymarket: Hormuz traffic normal-by-July odds plunge to 4.5% on strikes Polymarket Reprices “Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normal by July 31?” After New Strike Headlines On Polymarket, traders are now pricing “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?” at 4.5% Yes (95.5% No) after a steep drop from 42.0% Yes. The move follows fresh conflict headlines and highlights how quickly the contract’s implied probability and liquidity ($13.7M volume) have repriced. Key Takeaways Polymarket’s leading view is No at 95.5% (Yes 4.5%) on traffic returning to normal by July 31. After the latest catalyst, the market’s Yes price collapsed from 42.0% to 4.5%, signaling a sharp downg

A potential rate hold in September could stabilize risk assets like crypto, but unexpected hikes may trigger market volatility and liquidity concerns. The post Polymarket predicts 57% chance of no rate change in September appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

The post Polymarket prices July Fed hold at 85.5% after minutes spark repricing appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Joerg Hiller Jul 09, 2026 20:22 Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting showed policymakers split on whether rates might rise or fall, while voting unanimously to keep the benchmark at 3.5%–3.75%. Polymarket prices July Fed hold at 85.5% after minutes spark repricing Fed Minutes Trigger Polymarket Reprice Toward a July “No Change” Base Case Polymarket’s July Fed-decision ladder has repriced toward “No change,” with the leading outcome at 85.5% on $48,287,687 in volume. The move follows fresh Fed-minutes headlines, and the key signal is how quickly traders widened the gap between hold vs any hike/cut strikes. Key Takeaways Polymarket implies “No change” is the base case at 85.5% (Yes 85.5% / No 14.5%). After the minutes highlighted internal disagreement, traders still concentrated pricing on a hold, pushing the leading odds up 14.0 pp from 71.5%. The market

The deployment could stabilize regional tensions, impacting global markets by reducing volatility and influencing capital flows in emerging markets. The post Trump’s plan to deploy 20,000 peacekeeping troops to Gaza could reshape Middle East risk calculus for markets appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

The post White House Defends Trump as CFTC Vacancies Stall Crypto Bill appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The White House defended President Donald Trump’s regulatory appointments as Senate disputes over agency vacancies threaten progress. Lawmakers continue debating the stalled crypto market structure bill and the role of federal regulators.  Officials sent a letter to congressional leaders to challenge claims about Trump’s nomination strategy. They argued that Democrats blocked several civilian nominees while Trump still selected some bipartisan candidates. Additionally, the administration said it sought Democratic recommendations for Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission roles. However, officials said they received no responses from Democratic leaders. Consequently, the White House blamed the ongoing vacancies on political disagreements rather than executive delays. 🚨NEW: The White House is pushing back on Senate Democrats’ claims that the Tr

Rising US-Iran tensions could destabilize global markets, prompting shifts to safe assets and impacting energy prices and inflation expectations. The post Israel warns US of Iranian assassination plot against Trump, rattling crypto markets appeared first on Crypto Briefing.