Polymarket prices 99.95% BTC above $52K July 12 after NH bond rejection

The post Polymarket prices 99.65% No on Hormuz normal traffic by July 15 appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Jessie A Ellis Jul 11, 2026 00:10 Fresh reports of new Iran conflict attacks surfaced as a Washington official denied US involvement and said technical talks with Iran continue. Polymarket prices 99.65% No on Hormuz normal traffic by July 15 Iran-Linked Headlines Push Polymarket to a 99.65% “No” on Strait of Hormuz Normal Traffic by July 15 On Polymarket, traders are pricing a near-certain “No” on whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15, with Yes at 0.35% and No at 99.65% on $8.69M matched. The latest Iran-focused headlines are acting as a catalyst, but the sharper story is the contract’s steep odds compression and high-volatility path into the deadline. Key Takeaways Prediction-market pricing strongly favors “No” at 99.65% implied, with “Yes” at 0.35% on the July 15 normal-traffic question. The Iran-related news cycle coincides with trad

The post XRP Finally Back, Shiba Inu (SHIB) Up With 263 Billion Surge, Does Bitcoin (BTC) Need This Level? Crypto Market Review appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Shiba Inu’s volume injection Bitcoin must push above XRP is finally beginning to show signs of life after weeks of struggling beneath declining resistance and failing to produce any significant momentum. The asset is exhibiting some of the strongest recovery behavior since the start of its most recent decline, though it would be premature to declare this a full-scale bull market reversal.  The ability of XRP to recover from the late-June lows around $1.00 is the most significant development. Buyers intervened and forced the asset back toward the declining resistance line that has stopped every attempt at a rally over the past month, rather than creating another lower low and prolonging the bearish trend.  XRP/USDT Chart by TradingView Currently, XRP is testing a crucial technical barrier created by the 26-day EMA and the de

The post Polymarket keeps Golden Ball odds flat at 50% as Mbappe–Messi buzz grows appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Alvin Lang Jul 11, 2026 00:03 France’s 2-0 win over Morocco set up a semifinal and kept the Mbappe–Messi duel in focus, with both tied on eight tournament goals after Mbappe rebounded from a missed penalty. Polymarket keeps Golden Ball odds flat at 50% as Mbappe–Messi buzz grows World Cup Golden Ball Storylines Fail to Move Polymarket Odds—Market Stays Pinned at 50% Polymarket’s “World Cup: Golden Ball Winner” market is still perfectly flat, with the leading outcome sitting at 50% on roughly $4.98M in volume even as a high-profile World Cup storyline grabs attention. The data lens here is simple: no repricing, no momentum—traders are not yet expressing a directional view in the contract odds. Key Takeaways Polymarket currently implies Player A leads the Golden Ball race at 50%, with every listed player also priced at 50%. A headline-driven spotlight o

The post ‘The Clearest Macro Risk to Bitcoin’: Why Bitfinex Is Warning Investors About the Yen Carry Trade appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key Takeaways The yen dropped to historic lows, raising policy tightening fears that threaten global crypto liquidity. Bitfinex flagged the yen carry trade as a macro risk, warning a sharp reversal will hit BTC and ETH. Japan spent $73B on FX interventions, showing limited impact against massive global trading volumes. Yen Carry Trade Reversal Awakens Fears in Bitcoin Analysts One of the most relevant global liquidity drivers, the Japanese carry trade, is under analyst scrutiny again due to the recent devaluation of the yen, which might prompt a reversal of the conditions that gave it its origin. As explained in Bitcoin News before, the yen carry trade has its origin in the historically low cost of borrowing money in Japan. Investors leverage this liquidity, extracting it from the country and funneling it into more lucrative markets, investing

Analysts warn that a reversal in the current conditions of the Japanese yen, as the Bank of Japan moves to protect its fiat currency, would lead investors to unwind risk positions globally, impacting tech stocks and bitcoin markets primarily. Yen Carry Trade Reversal Awakens Fears in Bitcoin Analysts One of the most relevant global liquidity […]

The post Polymarket odds lift Troy Jackson to 57.5% in Maine Dem Senate nominee race appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Joerg Hiller Jul 10, 2026 22:09 A recent podcast episode detailed a rapidly escalating crisis around Maine Senate candidate Graham Platner, including calls for him to step down amid controversies and sexual abuse allegations. Polymarket odds lift Troy Jackson to 57.5% in Maine Dem Senate nominee race Polymarket Reprices Maine Democratic Senate Nominee Odds After Candidate Turmoil Catalyst Polymarket traders have pushed the Maine Democratic Senate nominee market toward Troy Jackson, lifting his implied odds to 57.5% on $416,678 of volume. The move follows a news catalyst about turmoil around a Maine Senate candidate, and the market data shows a 7.5-point jump with strengthening consensus into the July 27 resolution. Key Takeaways Polymarket’s leading pick is Troy Jackson at 57.5% implied odds (42.5% No). A news item describing fast-moving turmoil ar

The post Polymarket odds hit 8.5% for Hormuz traffic normalizing by July 31 appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Joerg Hiller Jul 10, 2026 22:04 Explosions were reported across parts of Iran as U.S. Polymarket odds hit 8.5% for Hormuz traffic normalizing by July 31 Polymarket Slams “Yes” After Iran Explosion Reports Reprice Strait of Hormuz Normalization Risk On Polymarket, traders have pushed the “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?” contract sharply toward No, with Yes down to 8.5% on $14.23M matched. The repricing follows fresh reports of explosions in Iran and escalating regional strikes, and the market’s move is visible in both the large swing from 42% and the recent high-volatility tape. Key Takeaways Polymarket implies a 91.5% chance of “No” (only 8.5% Yes) that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31. The contract repriced lower after reports of explosions in Iran and continued tit-for-tat strikes, aligning traders toward prolo

The post Polymarket sees Sept Fed hold at 56.5% as rate-hike bets linger appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Alvin Lang Jul 10, 2026 20:15 After the Fed released June meeting minutes showing officials split on where rates end 2026, a Kalshi report put the chance of a hike this year near 54%. Polymarket sees Sept Fed hold at 56.5% as rate-hike bets linger Polymarket Reprices the September 2026 Fed Decision Ladder After Split Signals in the June Minutes Polymarket’s “Fed Decision in September?” ladder is holding steady, with “No change” leading at 56.5% (Yes 56.5% / No 43.5%) on $2,249,526 matched. The pricing comes as another prediction market (Kalshi) highlighted how divided rate expectations look after the Fed’s June meeting minutes, a useful cross-check on how traders are mapping policy uncertainty into specific September outcomes. Key Takeaways Polymarket implies “No change” is the most likely September result at 56.5% (Yes 56.5% / No 43.5%), ahead of a 25 bps inc