Smotrich touts new West Bank settlements as Polymarket favors Eizenkot at 39%

The post RBNZ hikes to 2.50% as Polymarket puts 2026 Fed hike at 49.5% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Ted Hisokawa Jul 08, 2026 02:45 On July 8, 2026, New Zealand’s central bank lifted its policy rate 25 basis points to 2.50%, reinforcing that tightening cycles aren’t universally over. RBNZ hikes to 2.50% as Polymarket puts 2026 Fed hike at 49.5% RBNZ Raises Rates to 2.50%: Polymarket Keeps “Fed Rate Hike in 2026” Near a Coin Flip at 49.5% Yes New Zealand’s central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, a move that kept global rate-setter watchers focused on the persistence of tightening cycles. On Polymarket, odds on the Federal Reserve delivering a rate hike at some point in 2026 were priced at 49.5% at the latest update, with the market marginally favoring “No” at 50.5%. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices a 49.5% chance of a Fed rate hike in 2026, with “No” leading at 50.5%. Traders kept the contract near a coin flip as attention st

The post US strikes on Iran lift Polymarket invasion odds to 14.5% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Ted Hisokawa Jul 08, 2026 02:38 CENTCOM said the U.S. military launched “powerful strikes” against Iran to impose “heavy costs,” escalating pressure on Tehran. US strikes on Iran lift Polymarket invasion odds to 14.5% U.S. Launches “Powerful Strikes” Against Iran, Pushing Polymarket “Invade Iran Before 2027?” Odds to 14.5% The U.S. military said it launched “powerful strikes” against Iran, a development that pushed traders to reprice Polymarket’s “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” contract higher. The market’s implied probability for “Yes” rose to 14.5% from 11.5%. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices a 14.5% chance the U.S. invades Iran before 2027, with “No” leading at 85.5%. Odds moved up 3.0 percentage points after the U.S. military said it launched “powerful strikes” against Iran. The contract resolves on 2026-12-31, and the “Yes” price is down 2.0 points over

The post Iran waiver revoked lifts oil, Polymarket keeps Starmer exit odds at 97.2% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Jessie A Ellis Jul 08, 2026 02:31 Oil climbed about 5% after the United States revoked an Iran oil sanctions waiver, tightening expectations for Iranian crude flows and adding supply uncertainty. Iran waiver revoked lifts oil, Polymarket keeps Starmer exit odds at 97.2% Oil Surges 5% After U.S. Revokes Iran Sanctions Waiver as Polymarket Nudges Starmer Exit Odds Higher Oil prices jumped about 5% after the United States revoked an Iran oil sanctions waiver, a headline that rippled across global markets. On Polymarket, traders nudged up the leading pick in the “Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)” contract, with Keir Starmer priced as the most likely next leader to exit before 2027. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices “Starmer – UK PM” as the leading outcome at 97.2% (No 2.8%) in “Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)”. The market’

The post U.S. charges in Nijjar killing case lift Polymarket to 72.5% on Hormuz fees appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Jessie A Ellis Jul 08, 2026 00:23 U.S. U.S. charges in Nijjar killing case lift Polymarket to 72.5% on Hormuz fees U.S. Charges in Nijjar Assassination Probe Push Polymarket “Iran Charges Hormuz Fees by Dec. 31” Odds to 72.5% U.S. authorities announced a sweeping set of criminal charges tied to the 2023 assassination of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada, a killing that had strained Canada-India relations. On Polymarket, traders pushed up the implied odds in the ladder market “Iran charges Hormuz fees by…?” with the top rung “December 31” priced at 72.5%. Key Takeaways Polymarket’s leading rung is “Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?” at 72.5% Yes (27.5% No). Pricing firmed as the market moved higher, with the leading implied odds up to 72.5% from 68.0% on the latest update. The contract resolves by 2026-08-31 23:59 UTC, while the la

The post US moves to reimpose Iran sanctions as Polymarket keeps RFK Jr at 49% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Ted Hisokawa Jul 08, 2026 00:17 On Tuesday, a report said the United States is moving to reimpose sanctions in response to strikes involving Iran. US moves to reimpose Iran sanctions as Polymarket keeps RFK Jr at 49% U.S. Reimposes Iran Sanctions: Polymarket GOP 2028 Nominee Odds Hold Steady With RFK Jr. at 49% U.S. moves to reimpose sanctions after Iran strikes put foreign policy back into the headlines as traders priced longer-dated political scenarios. On Polymarket, odds in the Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 market were flat, with the leader holding steady at 49%. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the leading 2028 Republican nominee at 49% (No 51%). A report on the U.S. moving to reimpose sanctions after Iran strikes coincided with unchanged pricing in the GOP 2028 nominee market. The contract resolves on 2028-11-07, and

The post Middle East tensions lift oil as Polymarket sees 82.5% odds Fed holds in July appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Joerg Hiller Jul 07, 2026 22:34 U.S. Central Command said Tuesday evening the U.S. launched powerful strikes on Iran after attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, helping lift WTI crude more than 2% above $72. Middle East tensions lift oil as Polymarket sees 82.5% odds Fed holds in July July 2026 Fed Rate Decision: Polymarket “No Change” Jumps to 82.5% as Oil Rallies and FOMC Minutes Loom U.S. stock-index futures were near flat as investors weighed rising Middle East tensions, higher oil prices and the upcoming release of Federal Reserve meeting minutes. On Polymarket, traders pushed up the leading outcome in the “Fed Decision in July?” ladder, pricing “No change” at 82.5%. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices “No change” after the July 2026 Fed meeting at 82.5% (Yes) versus 17.5% (No). The repricing followed a session marked by h

The post Meta debuts Instagram Muse Image as Polymarket keeps Anthropic at 84.5% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Rongchai Wang Jul 07, 2026 22:28 On Tuesday, Meta rolled out Muse Image inside Instagram, letting prompts remix photos and even public-profile likenesses without notifications, with opt-outs only via privacy or new settings. Meta debuts Instagram Muse Image as Polymarket keeps Anthropic at 84.5% Meta’s Instagram Muse Image Launch Fuels Model-Ranking Race as Polymarket Keeps Anthropic Favored at 84.5% Meta’s rollout of a new Instagram-integrated AI image model has sharpened focus on which labs are leading in generative AI, as platforms race to ship consumer-facing features. On Polymarket’s “Which company has best AI model end of July?” contract, traders still heavily favor Anthropic, with the lead outcome ticking higher to 84.5%. Key Takeaways Anthropic is the leading pick at 84.5% to have the best AI model at the end of July 2026. Traders kept Anthropi

The post Fed minutes loom as Polymarket lifts ETH $1,700 touch odds to 44.5% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Fed Minutes Loom: Polymarket Ethereum July 6–12 Contract Shifts as “↓ 1,700” Becomes the Top Outcome The market is bracing for the Federal Reserve’s June 16–17 meeting minutes due Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, a release that traders see as pivotal for risk-asset direction after a jobs-driven crypto rebound. On Polymarket, that macro backdrop has coincided with higher odds on the Ethereum ladder contract “What price will Ethereum hit July 6-12?”, with the leading outcome “↓ 1,700” priced at 44.5%. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices the leading outcome “↓ 1,700” at 44.5% (Yes 44.5% / No 55.5%) for Ethereum during July 6-12. Crypto traders are focused on whether the Fed minutes validate a softer labor-market narrative that has underpinned the latest rebound in major tokens. The contract is set to resolve on 2026-07-13 04:00:00+00:00, and the leading-outcome odds are up 6.0 percentage p