Czech Koruna: CNB hawkish bias supports CZK – Commerzbank

The post Polish Zloty: Neutral MPC guidance points to underperformance – Commerzbank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Tatha Ghose at Commerzbank expects Poland’s NBP to leave rates at 3.75%, with forwards already reflecting this. With inflation momentum near zero and energy-driven disinflation back, earlier hike bets have been unwound and some analysts now discuss potential easing from Q4 or March 2027. Commerzbank sees this shift eroding PLN’s carry and supporting underperformance versus CZK. Rate-hike narrative replaced by easing talk “Headline CPI slowed to 2.5%y/y in June, weaker than consensus; more importantly, the month-on-month price change turned negative and, after seasonal-adjustment and smoothing, worked out to near-zero. In other words, the recent oil shock did not generate a lasting impulse; disinflationary forces in food and energy have re-asserted themselves.” “As we commented earlier, FRA contracts had been pricing in possible hikes later in 2026 only a month ago –

The post New Zealand Dollar: Hawkish RBNZ but kiwi seen vulnerable – Commerzbank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur reports the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lifted the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 2.5%, with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gaining slightly versus US Dollar (USD). RBNZ’s tone was more hawkish than expected, addressing structural inflation risks, and Commerzbank still looks for one more hike. However, they see market pricing of three additional hikes as excessive, expecting kiwi weakness once expectations are pared back. Market overpricing future OCR hikes “As we expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the official cash rate (OCR) this morning to 2.5%. The kiwi reacted positively to this move and gained slightly against the USD after having fallen significantly in recent weeks. In its statement, however, the central bank’s tone was, on the whole, perhaps a bit more hawkish than we would have expected.” “We, too, had anticipated a c

The post Singapore Dollar: Range consolidation holds against US Dollar – Commerzbank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay highlights that USD/SGD has been stable around 1.2920, with SGD NEER estimated at roughly +0.8% above its mid-point. The pair has traded within a 1.29–1.30 range for a month and Lay expects near-term consolidation. The +/-2% NEER band implies a broader USD/SGD range between 1.2780 and 1.3300. SGD NEER stays moderately elevated “In FX, USD/SGD was stable yesterday at around 1.2920. It has held within the 1.29-1.30 range for the past month, and we look for consolidation in the near term. On a SGD NEER basis, we estimate it is around +0.8% above the mid-point for USD/SGD at 1.2920, USD/MYR at 4.0850, and USD/CNY at 6.7940. The +/-2% band around the mid-point corresponds to USD/SGD between 1.2780-1.3300, with the mid-point at 1.3040, ceteris paribus.” “May retail sales rose 3% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 4.7%) vs 5.4% previously. On a 3-month mov

The post Germany: Factory recovery prospects – Commerzbank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Commerzbank’s Dr. Ralph Solveen notes that German industrial output rose 0.9% in May versus April, leaving April–May production slightly above the first-quarter average. With manufacturing sales outperforming output and energy prices having spiked only temporarily, he argues there is a growing likelihood that the German economy avoided contraction in spring and could resume recovery later in 2026 as Oil prices fall. German industry shows tentative improvement “Industrial output rose by 0.9% in May compared with the previous month. As a result, output in April and May was slightly above the Q1 average. Since sales have performed even slightly better, there is a growing likelihood that the German economy did not contract in the spring, despite the massive temporary spike in energy prices.” “Once again, German industry has reported quite encouraging figures: Following yesterday’s report of a si

The post Oil: Gulf supply recovery challenges oversupply narrative – Commerzbank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch highlights a rapid recovery in Gulf oil production and exports following the US–Iran agreement, with Brent moving into contango and Saudi Arabia slashing its OSP for Asian buyers. Despite sharply higher observed flows, Fritsch argues that mine clearance, restricted tanker traffic and stock replenishment needs mean the Oil market is unlikely to face a genuine oversupply in the short term. Gulf output rebounds but risks linger “Price signals also suggest that oil supplies have risen more sharply than the official data indicate. This is because the front end of the Brent forward curve is in contango. Initially, only the first two futures contracts were affected.” “Last week, however, the contango structure extended to the first four contracts. Another indication could be Saudi Arabia’s sharp cut in the official selling prices (OSP) for August.

The post Aluminium: Short supply supports prices despite Gulf outages – Commerzbank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Commerzbank’s Barbara Lambrecht says Aluminium’s recent correction has likely run its course, with prices rebounding as Chinese and LME inventories fall sharply and Gulf smelter outages persist. The Australian Ministry expects primary Aluminium to be significantly undersupplied this year and next, though longer term it sees strong non-Chinese capacity growth, especially in Indonesia, tempering the structural outlook. Tight market now, capacity boom later “Stocks could fall below 900 Tsd. tons this month. Aluminium stocks registered on the LME have also been falling significantly since the end of October and have dropped below 300 Tsd. tons for the first time since October 2022.” “Also, in its latest market outlook, the Australian Department of Resources and Energy considers price levels in the market to be well supported. Whilst China has partially offset production

The post Gold: Price dip seen limited as PBoC buying continues – Commerzbank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch notes Gold fell to USD 4,120 per ounce after fresh Iranian attacks lifted TTF gas and Oil prices, but Fed rate expectations remain unchanged. He argues downside is limited, as the People’s Bank of China has bought Gold for 20 straight months, recently accelerating purchases and adding 33 tons over the last three months on the lower price environment. Chinese demand cushions recent weakness “The price of gold fell to USD 4,120 per troy ounce this morning following Iranian attacks on two cargo ships and an LNG tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, the TTF natural gas price rose significantly, and oil prices also edged up slightly, fueling inflation concerns.” “However, there was no change in Fed rate hike expectations. The market continues to anticipate interest rate hikes by the Fed of around 30 basis points by the end of the year. As a r

The failed takeover highlights challenges in cross-border banking mergers, emphasizing political, regulatory, and strategic complexities. The post UniCredit’s takeover offer for Commerzbank ends Tuesday, and nobody seems to want it appeared first on Crypto Briefing.