The post Polish Zloty: Neutral MPC guidance points to underperformance – Commerzbank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Tatha Ghose at Commerzbank expects Poland’s NBP to leave rates at 3.75%, with forwards already reflecting this. With inflation momentum near zero and energy-driven disinflation back, earlier hike bets have been unwound and some analysts now discuss potential easing from Q4 or March 2027. Commerzbank sees this shift eroding PLN’s carry and supporting underperformance versus CZK. Rate-hike narrative replaced by easing talk “Headline CPI slowed to 2.5%y/y in June, weaker than consensus; more importantly, the month-on-month price change turned negative and, after seasonal-adjustment and smoothing, worked out to near-zero. In other words, the recent oil shock did not generate a lasting impulse; disinflationary forces in food and energy have re-asserted themselves.” “As we commented earlier, FRA contracts had been pricing in possible hikes later in 2026 only a month ago –
The post New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ hike seen as moderate tightening – MUFG appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny reports that the New Zealand Dollar strengthened after the RBNZ raised its policy rate by 25 bps to 2.50%, the first increase since May 2023. He notes OIS had largely priced the move and more hikes, but MUFG expects only two additional increases by March 2027. Communication is viewed as consistent with moderate tightening, with fragile domestic conditions limiting follow‑through NZD gains. RBNZ decision and NZD reaction “The only notable move for the US dollar this morning has been weaker versus the New Zealand dollar which was in response to the decision of the RBNZ to raise the key policy rate by 25bps to 2.50%, the first hike since May 2023. The OIS market yesterday had 18bps priced for today and 85bps over the coming twelve months.” “We expected this move, but have only two further hikes priced by March 2027, slightly less than implied by the OIS curv
The post Czech Koruna: CNB hawkish bias supports CZK – Commerzbank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes Czech headline inflation fell to 1.5% year-on-year, below Czech National Bank (CNB) forecasts, with goods and energy prices soft but services still elevated. CNB officials stress core inflation remains high and view the latest print as transitory, keeping a hawkish bias. Markets may still price one more 25bp hike in 2026, with Czech Koruna (CZK) expected to outperform Polish Zloty (PLN) in coming months. Soft CPI unlikely to derail CNB stance “June’s Czech CPI flash release showed headline inflation easing to 1.5%y/y from 2.1%y/y, clearly softer than both market expectations (1.8%y/y) and the Czech National Bank’s (CNB’s) own forecast (2.1%y/y). The price level fell by 0.3%m/m on raw basis.” “The seasonally‑adjusted and smoothed month‑on‑month rate of change is now near‑zero, as prices continue to reverse from the earlier Iran war energy spike. Goods p
The post New Zealand Dollar: Hawkish RBNZ but kiwi seen vulnerable – Commerzbank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur reports the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lifted the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 2.5%, with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gaining slightly versus US Dollar (USD). RBNZ’s tone was more hawkish than expected, addressing structural inflation risks, and Commerzbank still looks for one more hike. However, they see market pricing of three additional hikes as excessive, expecting kiwi weakness once expectations are pared back. Market overpricing future OCR hikes “As we expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the official cash rate (OCR) this morning to 2.5%. The kiwi reacted positively to this move and gained slightly against the USD after having fallen significantly in recent weeks. In its statement, however, the central bank’s tone was, on the whole, perhaps a bit more hawkish than we would have expected.” “We, too, had anticipated a c
The proposal highlights the tension between maintaining Bitcoin's fixed supply cap and ensuring long-term network security through miner incentives.
The post StarkWare CEO proposes 4% annual Bitcoin inflation to replace 21M cap appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
The rate hike may curb inflation but risks slowing economic recovery, impacting housing, currency strength, and global investment dynamics.
The post Reserve Bank of New Zealand raises key interest rate for first time in three years appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
The post RBA’s Hunter: Board will intervene as necessary to bring inflation back to target appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said on Wednesday that the central bank will act as needed to bring inflation back to target, even as the recent oil shock has yet to produce a marked slowdown in economic activity. Key quotes The recent oil shock has led to falls in consumer and business confidence but there are so far few signs of a marked slowdown in activity. It is not always correct to look through supply shocks and that a period of low inflation and higher unemployment might be needed if inflation expectations start to drift up. Supply shocks create difficult trade-offs but do not lessen the importance of maintaining low and stable inflation. The board will continue to act as needed to ensure inflation returns to target and the labour market to sustainable full employment. Market reaction At press time, the AUD/USD pair trad
Weaker demand, especially from China, may ease energy-related inflation, impacting global economic activity and market confidence.
The post Oil prices fall despite tight supply as China’s demand weakens appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
