The post Euro: Early gains against US Dollar at risk on Fed story – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Chris Turner at ING highlights that EUR/USD has held up despite higher Oil, as Euro swap rates outperformed US rates on expectations of an ECB hike in September. However, he argues the Fed narrative will dominate, with EUR/USD likely to surrender gains and fall below 1.14. ECB minutes and energy prices should keep September hike expectations alive. Resilience questioned as Fed dominates “On the eurozone calendar today is the release of the ECB minutes for the 11 June meeting. We assume this will be pitched as hawkish and, combined with higher energy prices, keep expectations alive for a follow-up hike at the September meeting. That is currently priced at +22bp by money markets.” “EUR/USD has held up remarkably well given the jump in oil prices yesterday. Yield spreads did narrow in favour of the euro, where euro swap rates rose around 7-8bp more than short-dated US rates on the
The post Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD picks up above $59.00 as US Dollar softens appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Silver (XAG/USD) is trimming losses on Thursday, and hitting session highs just above $59.00 after bouncing from $57.22 lows on Wednesday. US Dollar’s pullback has given some oxygen to the battered precious metals, although Silver’s broader trend remains bearish, after having lost more than $3 so far this week. The White metal is drawing some support from a weaker US Dollar following the release of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) minutes. The central bank maintained its commitment to fight inflationary pressures, but a split market committee has left investors pondering the timing of the next interest rate hikes. Furthermore, Iran and the US have exchanged attacks for the second consecutive day, but comments from US President Donald Trump affirming that Iran “wants to make a deal so badly” suggest that Washington and Tehran will return to the negotiating table. Technical
Fed minutes cited rising inflation risks and possible 2026 hikes, the 10-year sat near 4.47%, and the S&P 500 traded at 20.1x forward P/E. Why yields could bite.
The post RWA news: A DEX trader holds $1 million EUR/USD bullish bet for 400 Days appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
The term “HODLing,” crypto slang for buying and holding an asset for a long time, has historically been associated almost exclusively with bitcoin BTC$62,946.60 and ether (ETH). One trader has now applied the same long-term approach to perpetual futures tied to the euro-dollar pair (EUR/USD) listed on the decentralized exchange (DEX) Ostium, which is powered by Nasdaq data. A trader has held a long position in EUR/USD worth $1,139,490 for 400 days, Ostrium said on Tuesday. The bullish bet, expecting the euro to strengthen against the U.S. dollar, was opened around early June 2025. EUR/USD traded above 1.14 as of this writing, largely unchanged from where it was in June last year, but it did rise as high as 1.2082 in January this year. Onchain FX trading offered by platforms such as Ostium, Gains Network, Synthetix, GMX, and others remains a very tiny fraction of the gl
The post Euro advances against Canadian Dollar on strong German trade, weak oil appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
EUR/CAD gains ground after two days of losses, trading around 1.6210 during the European hours on Thursday. The currency cross remains stronger following stronger-than-expected trade data from Germany. Germany’s Trade Surplus widened to €19.1 billion in May, marking the largest surplus since February. This comfortably beat market forecasts of €14.8 billion and followed an upwardly revised €14.7 billion surplus in April. This expansion was driven by an unexpected 0.9% month-on-month surge in German exports, which hit a three-and-a-half-year high and defied expectations of a 0.3% decline. Conversely, imports dropped by 2.5% to a three-month low, missing the estimate for a 0.1% growth and reversing the previous month’s 1.1% gain. The EUR/CAD cross found support as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) weakened in tandem with falling oil prices. West Texas Intermediate
The post Euro: ECB hawkish repricing with bond selloff – Deutsche Bank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Deutsche Bank Research’s Early Morning Reid notes that European assets are sensitive to the renewed energy shock. Market pricing for ECB hikes by December rose sharply, implying a chance of three hikes this year after June’s move. Sovereign bonds sold off, with 10-year Bund yields posting their biggest daily jump since May and French OATs reaching their highest level since 2009. ECB expectations and yield surge “Meanwhile at the ECB, there was an even bigger hawkish repricing, with the amount of hikes by December up +12.7bps on the day to 39.5bps.” “And given the ECB already hiked in June, that pricing implies a growing chance that they might end up hiking 3 times by the end of the year.” “Just like when the conflict began, yesterday’s re-escalation caused significant damage to sovereign bonds, particularly in Europe given the region’s exposure to the energy shock.” “So 10yr bund
The post US Dollar Index: Fed hawks supported by energy spike – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
ING’s Chris Turner notes that higher Oil prices and Gulf tensions have driven a bigger reaction in rates than in FX, with Brent near $80 supporting Fed hawks. The US Dollar (USD) is expected to stay firm versus low-yielders, while carry trades in Emerging Markets (EM) have been unwound. Turner sees US Dollar Index (DXY) around 101.00 with scope back toward 101.50. Fed scenarios and DXY support “Dominating global markets yesterday was the seeming breakdown in negotiations between the US and Iran and a more serious exchange of fire. That has extended overnight, with the US military striking infrastructure targets in northern Iraq – the first strike on infrastructure since early April. Brent briefly touched $80/bl and we saw some large moves at the short end of interest curves.” “In addition, last night saw the release of the FOMC minutes for the June meeting. Some had feared that Fed
The post US Dollar: Constructive outlook as Oil risks build – OCBC appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note renewed Middle East tensions and higher Oil prices are lifting the US Dollar (USD) and global bond yields. They expect the USD to appreciate by 2–3% in 2H26 versus lower-yielding currencies like the Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen (JPY) and Swiss Franc (CHF), with a larger rally contingent on a sharper Oil spike or US overheating. Geopolitics and energy underpin Dollar “We continue to expect the USD to appreciate by 2-3% in 2H26 and remain constructive on the currency against lower-yielding peers, including the EUR, JPY and CHF.” “A more significant move of over 5% remains a tail risk and would likely require either oil prices rising above USD100/bbl or renewed signs of US economic overheating, such as falling unemployment and firmer medium-term inflation expectations, rather than a soft-landing outcome.” “At around USD78/bbl, Brent crude remai
The post What is keeping the Japanese Yen close to 40-year lows as extreme positioning meets intervention threats? appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains locked in a high-stakes standoff against the US Dollar, testing the ultimate limits of Tokyo’s tolerance for its local currency to depreciate. While a combination of a dovish Bank of Japan (BoJ), loose domestic fiscal policy, and structural vulnerabilities as a net energy importer continue to weigh down the asset, speculative short positioning has reached heavily stretched extremes. Market observers warn that while the immediate technical path points to further gradual upside for the USD/JPY pair, the threat of unannounced government intervention looms large, setting the stage for a potentially violent and sudden trend reversal. USD/JPY daily chart. Source: FXStreet. Structural pressures and extreme positioning heighten intervention threats FX strategists at ABN AMRO note the market is aggressively probin
