Euro: Support zone key for next leg against US Dollar – UOB

The post Euro: Early gains against US Dollar at risk on Fed story – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Chris Turner at ING highlights that EUR/USD has held up despite higher Oil, as Euro swap rates outperformed US rates on expectations of an ECB hike in September. However, he argues the Fed narrative will dominate, with EUR/USD likely to surrender gains and fall below 1.14. ECB minutes and energy prices should keep September hike expectations alive. Resilience questioned as Fed dominates “On the eurozone calendar today is the release of the ECB minutes for the 11 June meeting. We assume this will be pitched as hawkish and, combined with higher energy prices, keep expectations alive for a follow-up hike at the September meeting. That is currently priced at +22bp by money markets.” “EUR/USD has held up remarkably well given the jump in oil prices yesterday. Yield spreads did narrow in favour of the euro, where euro swap rates rose around 7-8bp more than short-dated US rates on the

The post EUR/USD Price Forecast: Euro wavers around 1.1430 with the bearish trend intact appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The Euro (EUR) posts moderate gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, hitting session highs near 1.1440, yet trapped within the weekly range, with the broader bearish trend in play. A softer US Dollar is providing some support to the Euro, but rising geopolitical tensions and the rebound in Oil prices keep weighing on the common currency. Data from Germany released earlier on Thursday revealed that the Trade Balance surplus increased beyond expectations in May, totalling EUR 19.1 billion, from the 14.5 billion surplus seen in April, with exports growing and imports contracting against expectations. The Euro received a minor boost after the data release. The US Dollar, on the other hand, is losing ground, with markets still hopeful that Washington and Tehran will return to the negotiating table, despite the escalating tensions. News that Qatar is pressing

The post Australian Dollar: Tentative upside risk above 0.6980 against US Dollar – UOB appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang sees AUD/USD confined to a 0.6915–0.6950 intraday range as momentum remains lacklustre. For 1–3 weeks, upward momentum is tentatively building, with rising risk of a break above 0.6980 while 0.6900 acts as strong support. Over 1–3 months, however, the broader trend remains negative, with focus on 0.6707 below 0.6835. Australian Dollar holds in tight band “24-HOUR VIEW: AUD fell to a low of 0.6921 two days ago. When it was at 0.6925 yesterday, we stated that “while AUD could retreat further, given the lacklustre downward momentum, any decline is likely to be contained within a 0.6900/0.6950 range.” AUD subsequently rose to 0.6946, dipped to 0.6907 before recovering to close marginally higher by 0.01% at 0.6929. There has been no clear shift in either downward or upward momentum, and AUD is likely to range-trade today, pro

The post Forex Today: Markets overlook escalating tensions in Middle East appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Here is what you need to know on Thursday, July 9: The US Dollar (USD) struggles to find demand early Thursday despite a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The US economic calendar will feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales data for June. Investors will also keep a close eye on comments from central bank officials. US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.14% -0.20% -0.15% 0.06% -0.09% -0.54% -0.22% EUR 0.14% -0.06% 0.00% 0.20% 0.08% -0.36% -0.06% GBP 0.20% 0.06% 0.07% 0.26% 0.14% -0.30% 0.00% JPY 0.15% 0.00% -0.07% 0.19% 0.09% -0.38% -0.06% CAD -0.06% -0.20% -0.26% -0.19% -0.12% -0.57% -0.26% AUD 0.09% -0.08% -0.14% -0.09% 0.12% -0.44% -0.12% NZD 0.54% 0.36% 0

The post Euro: Hawkish Fed keeps gains contained against US Dollar – Commerzbank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Thu Lan Nguyen at Commerzbank notes that EUR/USD has traded in a narrow range and appears largely unaffected by Iran-related headlines, as the correlation with Oil has weakened. She highlights that markets now price Fed rate hikes despite softer labour data, reflecting a hawkish FOMC bias and reduced perceived risk of politically driven monetary easing in the United States. Fed reaction function supports Dollar “EUR/USD appears largely unaffected by the latest developments in the Iran conflict and continues to trade in a relatively narrow range. We had already pointed out that the correlation between the exchange rate and the oil price has diminished significantly.” “In other words, the market is now pricing in Fed rate hikes even in spite of a marked decline in oil prices.” “The fact that rate-hike expectations in the market are nevertheless holding up is mainly linked

The post US Dollar: Supported by higher yields and FOMC stance – MUFG appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. MUFG’s Lloyd Chan reports that June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes show policymakers increasingly concerned that US inflation could stay elevated, with some seeing a case for a rate hike. Most participants indicated a restrictive stance may need to be maintained if inflation proves persistent. FOMC minutes and yield rebound “The minutes from the June FOMC meeting highlighted growing concern among policymakers that inflation could remain elevated, even as downside risks to the labour market have moderated somewhat.” “While members ultimately supported leaving rates unchanged, a few participants noted that there was a case for a rate hike at the June meeting.” “Policymakers also discussed a range of economic scenarios for the months ahead.” “In the scenario where inflation remains persistent, most participants indicated that a restrictive policy stance would likely nee

The post USD/CHF Price Forecast: Dollar bulls lose steam after rejection at 0.8100 appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The US Dollar is trading lower against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Thursday, as investors ponder the consequences of reciprocal US and Iran attacks and a 10% rebound in Oil prices, on the major central banks’ monetary policies. The USD/CHF pair has retreated to levels near 0.8050 after being rejected at 0.8100 on Wednesday. The Swiss Franc is drawing some support from a mild US Dollar weakness, as the Dollar Index (DXY) dips below 101.00 to test weekly lows. Investors sold the Greenback across the board on Wednesday, following the release of the Federal Reserve’s minutes, unimpressed with the central bank’s commitment to bring inflationary pressures back to target. Geopolitical tensions are also failing to support the safe-haven US Dollar on Thursday. A second round of reciprocal attacks between the US and Iran cast further doubt on a negotiated end of the war, and have

The post Euro holds gains against Japanese Yen as Germany’s Trade Surplus widens in May appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. EUR/JPY extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 185.70 during the early European hours on Thursday. The currency cross maintains its upward momentum following stronger-than-expected seasonally-adjusted Trade Balance data from Germany. Germany’s Trade Surplus widened to €19.1 billion in May, marking the largest surplus since February. This comfortably beat market forecasts of €14.8 billion and followed an upwardly revised €14.7 billion surplus in April. This expansion was driven by an unexpected 0.9% month-on-month surge in German exports, which hit a three-and-a-half-year high and defied expectations of a 0.3% decline. Conversely, imports dropped by 2.5% to a three-month low, missing the estimate for a 0.1% growth and reversing the previous month’s 1.1% gain. However, the upside of the EUR/JPY cross could be limited as the Japanese Yen (JP