Kalshi and Polymarket lose 2 state gambling appeals

The post Goldman Sachs Limits, but Doesn’t Stop, Employees Using Kalshi and Polymarket appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Goldman Sachs has told employees to confine their prediction market activity to sports and entertainment. The bank hopes to limit compliance risks tied to betting on elections, interest rates, and other market-moving events. The bank issued the policy through an internal memo. It warned that repeated violations could lead to termination, a person familiar with the matter told the Financial Times. Kalshi and Polymarket Face Insider Trading Scrutiny Both platforms have drawn scrutiny over users profiting from advance knowledge of major events. Lookonchain flagged three wallets that netted more than $630,000 betting on Nicolás Maduro’s removal hours before his capture. Nobel Peace Prize organizers separately investigated a possible leak after a run of successful wagers on the eventual winner. Kalshi and Polymarket have since rolled out new rules targeting insider tra

The post Polymarket: Hormuz traffic normal-by-July odds plunge to 4.5% on strikes appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Ted Hisokawa Jul 10, 2026 00:03 US strikes were reported on Bushehr, Chabahar, Bandar Abbas, and Jask, with at least one death in Iranshahr and widespread power outages in Chabahar. Polymarket: Hormuz traffic normal-by-July odds plunge to 4.5% on strikes Polymarket Reprices “Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normal by July 31?” After New Strike Headlines On Polymarket, traders are now pricing “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?” at 4.5% Yes (95.5% No) after a steep drop from 42.0% Yes. The move follows fresh conflict headlines and highlights how quickly the contract’s implied probability and liquidity ($13.7M volume) have repriced. Key Takeaways Polymarket’s leading view is No at 95.5% (Yes 4.5%) on traffic returning to normal by July 31. After the latest catalyst, the market’s Yes price collapsed from 42.0% to 4.5%, signaling a sharp downg

The post Polymarket odds slide to 61.5% on Hormuz traffic normalizing by Dec. 31 appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Jessie A Ellis Jul 09, 2026 22:03 Washington said it will lift Syria’s “state sponsor of terrorism” label in 45 days unless Congress blocks it, after Trump met President Ahmed al-Sharaa at a NATO summit in Turkey. Polymarket odds slide to 61.5% on Hormuz traffic normalizing by Dec. 31 Polymarket Reprices “Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normal by Dec. 31” After Syria Terror-List Headline On Polymarket, the contract “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?” now implies 61.5% for Yes on $4,710,886 in volume, after a sharp drop from 85.5%. The repricing follows a separate geopolitical headline, and the move highlights how quickly prediction markets can de-risk expectations versus slower narrative drift. Key Takeaways Polymarket currently prices “Yes” at 61.5% (No 38.5%) that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by Dec. 31. Traders cut th

A potential rate hold in September could stabilize risk assets like crypto, but unexpected hikes may trigger market volatility and liquidity concerns. The post Polymarket predicts 57% chance of no rate change in September appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

The post Polymarket prices July Fed hold at 85.5% after minutes spark repricing appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Joerg Hiller Jul 09, 2026 20:22 Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting showed policymakers split on whether rates might rise or fall, while voting unanimously to keep the benchmark at 3.5%–3.75%. Polymarket prices July Fed hold at 85.5% after minutes spark repricing Fed Minutes Trigger Polymarket Reprice Toward a July “No Change” Base Case Polymarket’s July Fed-decision ladder has repriced toward “No change,” with the leading outcome at 85.5% on $48,287,687 in volume. The move follows fresh Fed-minutes headlines, and the key signal is how quickly traders widened the gap between hold vs any hike/cut strikes. Key Takeaways Polymarket implies “No change” is the base case at 85.5% (Yes 85.5% / No 14.5%). After the minutes highlighted internal disagreement, traders still concentrated pricing on a hold, pushing the leading odds up 14.0 pp from 71.5%. The market

The post Kalshi Plans Expansion Into Gold, Currency, and Energy Perpetual Futures Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key Highlights Kalshi is requesting regulatory clearance for perpetual futures covering gold, currencies, and energy. The trading venue intends to move past cryptocurrency-focused derivative offerings. Precious metals, particularly gold, represent a top strategic focus for upcoming launches. Regulatory examination by the CFTC may establish precedents for energy-linked perpetual contracts. Legacy derivative exchanges confront mounting competitive challenges from Kalshi’s strategic growth. Kalshi has submitted applications to broaden its perpetual futures offerings into precious metals, currency pairs, and energy commodities. This strategic initiative represents an effort to extend its regulated derivatives framework beyond cryptocurrency markets. The expansion strategy positions Kalshi in direct rivalry with long-standing exchange platforms and retail-focused tr

The post Polymarket keeps Iran regime-fall odds at 2.45% as ceasefire rift flares appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Jessie A Ellis Jul 09, 2026 10:03 At a NATO summit in Turkiye, a report says President Trump called the US–Iran ceasefire MOU “over,” after US strikes followed a promised pause tied to Ali Khamenei’s funeral. Polymarket keeps Iran regime-fall odds at 2.45% as ceasefire rift flares Polymarket Holds “No” Near 98% After US–Iran Ceasefire MoU Headlines Polymarket traders are pricing a very low chance that Iran’s regime falls by Sept. 30, with “No” leading at 97.55% on about $278,895 in volume. The latest catalyst in headlines is a new flare-up in US–Iran ceasefire messaging, and the market reaction is best read through the contract’s binary settlement and the still-flat short-term odds. Key Takeaways Polymarket implies “No” at 97.55% (Yes 2.45%) on whether the Iranian regime falls by Sept. 30. After the ceasefire MoU headline, pricing still reflects stron

The post Bitdeer unveils $36M Nevada factory to shake up Bitcoin mining appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Bitdeer Technologies has unveiled a $36 million manufacturing facility in Nevada, bringing production of its SEALMINER Bitcoin mining machines to the United States. Summary Bitdeer will invest $36 million in a Nevada factory to produce SEALMINER Bitcoin mining machines. The new Sparks facility is expected to begin commercial production by the end of 2026. Bitdeer shares jumped 14.1% as the company reported stronger U.S. manufacturing and 921 BTC mined in May. According to Bitdeer, the new plant in Sparks, Nevada, will manufacture key components for the company’s SEALMINER mining rigs, with commercial production scheduled to begin before the end of 2026. The company said the facility will strengthen its manufacturing capacity inside the United States while reducing its dependence on outside suppliers for critical mining equipment. Shares of Bitdeer responded positively to the ann