Oil: Risk premium returns on Gulf supply concerns – Commerzbank

The post Euro: Early gains against US Dollar at risk on Fed story – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Chris Turner at ING highlights that EUR/USD has held up despite higher Oil, as Euro swap rates outperformed US rates on expectations of an ECB hike in September. However, he argues the Fed narrative will dominate, with EUR/USD likely to surrender gains and fall below 1.14. ECB minutes and energy prices should keep September hike expectations alive. Resilience questioned as Fed dominates “On the eurozone calendar today is the release of the ECB minutes for the 11 June meeting. We assume this will be pitched as hawkish and, combined with higher energy prices, keep expectations alive for a follow-up hike at the September meeting. That is currently priced at +22bp by money markets.” “EUR/USD has held up remarkably well given the jump in oil prices yesterday. Yield spreads did narrow in favour of the euro, where euro swap rates rose around 7-8bp more than short-dated US rates on the

The post Forex Today: Markets overlook escalating tensions in Middle East appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Here is what you need to know on Thursday, July 9: The US Dollar (USD) struggles to find demand early Thursday despite a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The US economic calendar will feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales data for June. Investors will also keep a close eye on comments from central bank officials. US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.14% -0.20% -0.15% 0.06% -0.09% -0.54% -0.22% EUR 0.14% -0.06% 0.00% 0.20% 0.08% -0.36% -0.06% GBP 0.20% 0.06% 0.07% 0.26% 0.14% -0.30% 0.00% JPY 0.15% 0.00% -0.07% 0.19% 0.09% -0.38% -0.06% CAD -0.06% -0.20% -0.26% -0.19% -0.12% -0.57% -0.26% AUD 0.09% -0.08% -0.14% -0.09% 0.12% -0.44% -0.12% NZD 0.54% 0.36% 0

The post Oil: Rising geopolitical risks and Russian diesel ban – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Oil has extended its rally as renewed US-Iran tensions threaten the fragile ceasefire and disrupt flows through the Strait of Hormuz. ICE Brent has moved above $78/bbl, while Russia’s ban on diesel exports until end-July intensifies middle distillate supply concerns. ING highlights tighter US product inventories and expects stronger demand for US barrels. Brent supported by supply disruptions “ICE Brent settled 5.2% higher yesterday at a little over $78/bbl, with further upside expected today following additional US strikes against Iran in response to its earlier attacks on several vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz.” “Key for the oil outlook is whether the US and Iran are able to quickly de-escalate this latest rise in tensions.” “The market will be watching whether these crossings rebound in the coming days — or whether

The post Qatar condemns Iran’s attacks on ships, urges parties to commit to MoU appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. In a released statement from Qatar Prime Minister (PM) Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani after a phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister (FM) Abbas Araghchi, AI Thani said that he discussed about latest military escalation in the Middle East between the United States (US) and Iran and condemned attacks on commercial ships, which were transiting the Strait of Hormuz, a critical choke point to almost 20% of global energy supply. Additional comments All parties should commit to diplomacy. All parties should implement the signed MoU. Qatar supports all efforts to contain the escalation. Market reaction There is a slight buying interest seen in the US Dollar, following remarks from Qatar. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounds to near 100.90 after recovering some of its easrly losses. Risk sentiment FAQs In the world of financial jargon the two widely used

The post Bitcoin vs. gold: Why the BTC/XAU ratio could be key in July appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. July has officially kicked off, bringing the hedge narrative back into focus. At the macro level, volatility is picking up again. On the 8th of July, the U.S.-Iran ceasefire collapsed, sending Bitcoin back toward $62k and wiping out $300 million in long positions shortly after the news broke. At the same time, oil jumped over 4%, reclaiming the $75/barrel level for the first time since losing it in mid-June. While U.S. President Donald Trump later said Iran is open to another round of negotiations, the damage to risk sentiment has already been done. On Polymarket, the odds of oil trading above $80/barrel this month have surged from just 13% to 65%, reflecting growing expectations of further geopolitical escalation and tighter energy markets. Source: Polymarket Notably, the shift is already showing up across macro data.  According to FedWatch, the probability of a rate hike at the

The post Euro: Hawkish Fed keeps gains contained against US Dollar – Commerzbank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Thu Lan Nguyen at Commerzbank notes that EUR/USD has traded in a narrow range and appears largely unaffected by Iran-related headlines, as the correlation with Oil has weakened. She highlights that markets now price Fed rate hikes despite softer labour data, reflecting a hawkish FOMC bias and reduced perceived risk of politically driven monetary easing in the United States. Fed reaction function supports Dollar “EUR/USD appears largely unaffected by the latest developments in the Iran conflict and continues to trade in a relatively narrow range. We had already pointed out that the correlation between the exchange rate and the oil price has diminished significantly.” “In other words, the market is now pricing in Fed rate hikes even in spite of a marked decline in oil prices.” “The fact that rate-hike expectations in the market are nevertheless holding up is mainly linked

The post War Chatter Spikes To 3-Month High As Trump Ends Iran Ceasefire, Crypto Markets Brace For Volatility appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. War-related social volume across crypto platforms climbed to a three-month high on Tuesday after former President Trump announced the U.S. was withdrawing from the Iran ceasefire and warned that additional military action was on the table. According to the Santiment update, mentions of “war,” “Iran,” and “ceasefire” exploded immediately after the statements, pushing the social trend indicator to levels not seen since April. The spike followed renewed U.S.-Iran strikes and a collapse in diplomacy, with traders scrambling to gauge whether the escalation was a fresh geopolitical shock or another cycle of headline brinkmanship. For markets, the immediate question is whether this chatter translates into sustained selling pressure or just another round of headline-driven whipsaws. Santiment warned that the likely outcome is more volatility before

The post USD/CHF Price Forecast: Dollar bulls lose steam after rejection at 0.8100 appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The US Dollar is trading lower against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Thursday, as investors ponder the consequences of reciprocal US and Iran attacks and a 10% rebound in Oil prices, on the major central banks’ monetary policies. The USD/CHF pair has retreated to levels near 0.8050 after being rejected at 0.8100 on Wednesday. The Swiss Franc is drawing some support from a mild US Dollar weakness, as the Dollar Index (DXY) dips below 101.00 to test weekly lows. Investors sold the Greenback across the board on Wednesday, following the release of the Federal Reserve’s minutes, unimpressed with the central bank’s commitment to bring inflationary pressures back to target. Geopolitical tensions are also failing to support the safe-haven US Dollar on Thursday. A second round of reciprocal attacks between the US and Iran cast further doubt on a negotiated end of the war, and have