Oil shock jitters trim Polymarket odds of Fed holding rates steady in September

The post US strikes on Iran hit Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes drops to 58.5% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Jessie A Ellis Jul 09, 2026 02:03 On July 8, 2026, the United States launched new strikes on Iran during the seven-day funeral of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, citing attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. US strikes on Iran hit Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes drops to 58.5% U.S. Strikes Iran During Khamenei Funeral: Polymarket Odds Drop on Hormuz Traffic Normalization The U.S. launched new strikes on Iran despite President Donald Trump saying attacks would pause during the seven-day funeral of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, citing responses to attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. On Polymarket, the contract “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?” was last priced at 58.5% for Yes, down from 85.5%. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices a 58.5% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by Dece

The post Netanyahu warns on Turkey F-35s as Polymarket puts Eizenkot at 40% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Rongchai Wang Jul 09, 2026 00:04 In a CNN interview, Benjamin Netanyahu said he warned Donald Trump that a U.S. sale of F-35 jets to Turkey could upset the Middle East balance of power. Netanyahu warns on Turkey F-35s as Polymarket puts Eizenkot at 40% Netanyahu Warns Against U.S. F-35 Sale to Turkey as Polymarket Lifts Gadi Eizenkot’s Next Israel PM Odds Benjamin Netanyahu sharpened his public criticism of a potential U.S. sale of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey in comments to CNN, framing Ankara as an unreliable partner and warning of a regional power shift. Polymarket traders nudged higher the odds in the contract “Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?”, with Gadi Eizenkot leading at 39.95%. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices Gadi Eizenkot as the top pick at 39.95% to be Israel’s next prime minister after the next election. Trad

The post US-Iran strikes hit Hormuz; Polymarket sees 4.5% chance of July traffic normal appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Alvin Lang Jul 08, 2026 22:03 Tuesday, US Central Command said it began strikes on Iran after Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran promising a “crushing response.” Polymarket US-Iran strikes hit Hormuz; Polymarket sees 4.5% chance of July traffic normal US Strikes on Iran Send Polymarket Odds Crashing for “Strait of Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal by July 31?” The Strait of Hormuz remained under renewed security strain after the United States said it launched strikes on Iran in response to attacks on commercial vessels transiting the waterway. On Polymarket, the contract “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?” was priced at 4.5% for Yes, implying traders overwhelmingly expect disruptions to persist through the deadline. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices the leading outcome as No a

The post Kyiv hit before NATO Ankara summit as Polymarket puts Putin exit by 2027 at 18% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Joerg Hiller Jul 08, 2026 20:08 A Russian missile strike destroyed a residential building in Kyiv as crews cleared debris after an overnight barrage that killed at least 22 people, with Ukraine saying 68 missiles and 351 drones Kyiv hit before NATO Ankara summit as Polymarket puts Putin exit by 2027 at 18% Kyiv Missile Barrage Ahead of NATO Ankara Summit Pushes Polymarket “Putin Out by June 30, 2027” Odds to 18% Russian missile and drone strikes on Kyiv ahead of a NATO summit in Ankara sharpened focus on Vladimir Putin’s war strategy, as Ukraine’s leaders and analysts framed the barrage as both external signaling and domestic messaging. On Polymarket, the “Putin out as President of Russia by…?” ladder has repriced higher for the longest-dated step, with the June 30, 2027 line at 18% Yes (up from 8.5%). Key Takeaways Polymarket prices an 18% cha

The post Trump NATO rebuke hits Hormuz normalcy bet as Polymarket Yes slips to 58% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Jessie A Ellis Jul 08, 2026 20:03 On July 7, 2026, Donald Trump faulted NATO allies for not backing the U.S. during its conflict with Iran, questioning the alliance’s burden-sharing. Trump NATO rebuke hits Hormuz normalcy bet as Polymarket Yes slips to 58% Trump Slams NATO Allies as Polymarket Reprices Strait of Hormuz Normal-Traffic Odds to 58% U.S. President Donald Trump’s criticism of NATO allies over support during a conflict with Iran coincided with a sharp repricing in Polymarket’s “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?” contract. The market’s implied probability for a return to normal traffic fell to 58% from 85.5%. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices a 58% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by Dec. 31, with No at 42%. Traders marked down the contract after Trump criticized several NATO allies for refusing

The post Oil rally lifts loonie as Polymarket pegs July Fed hold at 75.5% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Alvin Lang Jul 08, 2026 16:18 Canada’s dollar strengthened as oil prices climbed, with traders bracing for upcoming U.S. jobs data that could reshape expectations for the Fed’s next move. Oil rally lifts loonie as Polymarket pegs July Fed hold at 75.5% Canadian Dollar Rallies With Oil as Polymarket Shifts to 75.5% “No Change” for the July 2026 Fed Decision The Canadian dollar strengthened on an oil rally as traders looked ahead to upcoming U.S. jobs data and the Federal Reserve outlook. On Polymarket, the “Fed Decision in July?” ladder contract moved higher on the “No change” outcome to 75.5% from 71.5%. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices a 75.5% chance of no Fed rate change after the July 2026 meeting. Traders repriced the July Fed path as markets weighed the oil-linked move in the Canadian dollar ahead of U.S. jobs data and the Fed outlook. The contract resolv

The post Trump scraps Iran MoU, oil jumps as Polymarket prices Hormuz normalcy at 0.85% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Joerg Hiller Jul 08, 2026 16:13 U.S. President Donald Trump said the Iran memorandum to end the conflict was “over” and warned of additional strikes Wednesday night, sending oil up and stocks lower. Trump scraps Iran MoU, oil jumps as Polymarket prices Hormuz normalcy at 0.85% Trump Says Iran MoU Is “Over”: Polymarket Shifts to Near-Certain “No” on Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normalizing by July 15 Oil and broader markets swung after President Donald Trump said a memorandum of understanding with Iran to end the conflict was “over” and warned of additional U.S. strikes. On Polymarket, traders heavily favored “No” on the contract asking whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices the “No” outcome at 99.15% and “Yes” at 0.85% for “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?”. Traders repric

The size and scope of the US stock market “gives policymakers a strong incentive to backstop major drawdowns,” said Bitget Wallet COO, Alvin Kan.