Omsk refinery hit trims Polymarket odds for United Russia lead to 54.5%

The post Trump Kharg Island remarks hit Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes sinks to 4.5% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Rongchai Wang Jul 08, 2026 14:20 A report said Donald Trump claimed the U.S. attacked Iran’s Kharg Island the previous night and floated reinstating a blockade of Iranian ports. Trump Kharg Island remarks hit Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes sinks to 4.5% Trump Cites Kharg Island Attack, Blockade Threat — Polymarket Shifts to “No” on Strait of Hormuz Normalization by July 3 Comments attributed to Donald Trump about a U.S. attack on Iran’s Kharg Island and a possible reinstatement of a blockade of Iranian ports are being reflected in Polymarket pricing on whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31. The contract’s odds have shifted sharply toward a “No” outcome as traders weigh renewed disruption risk. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices a 95.5% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic does not return to normal by July 31, versus 4.5% fo

The post Sheeran serenades England as Polymarket Golden Ball odds stay split at 50% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Alvin Lang Jul 08, 2026 14:15 Ed Sheeran played a private acoustic set for England’s squad at its Kansas City base ahead of Saturday’s World Cup quarter-final vs Norway in Miami. Sheeran serenades England as Polymarket Golden Ball odds stay split at 50% Ed Sheeran Serenades England Before Norway Quarter-Final as Polymarket Golden Ball Odds Stay Flat Ed Sheeran staged a private acoustic performance for England at the team’s Kansas City base as Thomas Tuchel’s squad prepared for a World Cup quarter-final against Norway. The off-pitch buzz landed alongside steady pricing in Polymarket’s “World Cup: Golden Ball Winner” market, where the top line remained unchanged. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices Player A as the leading Golden Ball pick at 50% implied odds. Traders held prices flat as England’s camp drew attention from Sheeran’s visit ahead of a quarter

The post Trump says Iran ceasefire is over as Polymarket trims 2028 Dem odds appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Joerg Hiller Jul 08, 2026 12:47 On Monday, Donald Trump said the Iran ceasefire was “over” and dismissed negotiations as “a waste of time,” signaling dim prospects for de-escalation. Trump says Iran ceasefire is over as Polymarket trims 2028 Dem odds Trump Declares Iran Ceasefire “Over”: Polymarket’s 2028 Democratic Nominee Leader Slips on Geopolitical Jolt Former President Donald Trump said the Iran ceasefire was “over” and called talks a “waste of time,” comments that injected fresh uncertainty into an already volatile foreign-policy backdrop. Polymarket traders nonetheless marked down pricing in the “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028” market, with the leading contract slipping even as activity remained heavy. Key Takeaways Gavin Newsom led Polymarket’s “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028” market at 18.7% implied odds, ahead of Alexandria Ocasio-Cor

The post Oil shock jitters trim Polymarket odds of Fed holding rates steady in September appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Ted Hisokawa Jul 08, 2026 12:42 A market note this week highlighted conflict-driven oil volatility and positioning as a key driver of near-term swings, warning it could ripple into broader risk sentiment and rates expectations. Oil shock jitters trim Polymarket odds of Fed holding rates steady in September Polymarket Fed September 2026 Bet: “No Change” Odds Slip as Oil-Conflict Volatility Reprices Rate Expectations A report highlighting conflict-driven oil volatility and shifting market positioning is feeding into broader macro uncertainty that can influence expectations for U.S. monetary policy. On Polymarket, odds moved lower for the leading outcome in the “Fed Decision in September?” contract, pointing to a modest repricing of the rate-path debate ahead of the September 2026 meeting. Key Takeaways Polymarket implies a 60.5% chance the Federa

The post NJ lidar bill pressures Tesla as Polymarket keeps Anthropic at 85.5% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Ted Hisokawa Jul 08, 2026 12:35 In New Jersey, lawmakers are weighing a bill requiring fully autonomous vehicles to use cameras plus two extra sensors like lidar and radar, potentially blocking Tesla’s camera-only Robotaxi. NJ lidar bill pressures Tesla as Polymarket keeps Anthropic at 85.5% New Jersey Robotaxi Lidar Bill: Anthropic Odds Jump as Traders Refocus on AI Model Leadership New Jersey lawmakers are weighing a bill that would require fully autonomous vehicles to use lidar and other sensors, a mandate that could block Tesla’s camera-only Robotaxi system in the state. On Polymarket, traders nudged up the leading pick in the “Which company has best AI model end of July?” market, with Anthropic holding a dominant share of the odds. Key Takeaways Anthropic leads Polymarket’s “Which company has best AI model end of July?” market at 85.5% implied odds.

The post Oil spike hits Bitcoin near $62K as Polymarket pegs $52K at 99.9% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Joerg Hiller Jul 08, 2026 12:28 Tuesday’s New York Fed survey showed 12-month inflation expectations rose to 3.7% as renewed U.S.-Iran airstrikes helped drive oil up about 5%, with Bitcoin hovering near $62,000 ahead of Fed Oil spike hits Bitcoin near $62K as Polymarket pegs $52K at 99.9% Bitcoin Slips Toward $62,000 After Iran-Linked Oil Spike as Polymarket Ladder Prices July 9 Levels Renewed Middle East hostilities that pushed oil prices sharply higher have added a fresh macro shock for Bitcoin, which slipped back toward the low $62,000 area as risk markets reacted. On Polymarket’s “Bitcoin above ___ on July 9?” ladder, traders still price very high odds that Bitcoin will clear the lower strike levels by the July 9 resolution window. Key Takeaways Polymarket implies a 99.9% chance Bitcoin will be above $52,000 on July 9. Traders are weighing conflicting in

The post Tankers turn back after attacks, Polymarket sees 57.5% Hormuz normal by Dec 31 appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Jessie A Ellis Jul 08, 2026 12:23 On July 8, 2026, four oil and gas tankers reportedly reversed course after vessel attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting fresh security risk for energy shipping. Tankers turn back after attacks, Polymarket sees 57.5% Hormuz normal by Dec 31 Strait of Hormuz tanker turnbacks after vessel attacks send Polymarket “traffic returns to normal” odds sliding A report that four oil and gas tankers turned back from the Strait of Hormuz after vessel attacks has coincided with a sharp repricing in Polymarket’s “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?” contract. The market’s implied probability for a return to normal traffic has fallen to 57.5% from 85.5%. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices a 57.5% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by Dec. 31, 2026. Traders marked the contract lo

The post Trump urges US-Spain trade cutoff as Polymarket backs Starmer exit at 97.3% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Alvin Lang Jul 08, 2026 12:16 On July 8, 2026, Donald Trump reportedly called for cutting off all U.S. trade with Spain, without detailing how or when it would happen. Trump urges US-Spain trade cutoff as Polymarket backs Starmer exit at 97.3% Trump Calls to Cut Off All U.S. Trade With Spain, Pushing Polymarket’s “Starmer Out Before 2027” Odds Up to 97.3% Donald Trump called for cutting off all U.S. trade with Spain, a headline that landed as Polymarket traders priced an even stronger consensus in the “Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)” market. The contract’s leading outcome, “Starmer – UK PM,” ticked up to 97.3% from 97.05% as of the latest update. Key Takeaways Polymarket prices “Starmer – UK PM” as the next leader out of power before 2027 at 97.3%. Traders nudged the leader higher after headlines that Trump called to cut off all U