Polish Zloty: Neutral MPC guidance points to underperformance – Commerzbank
The post Polish Zloty: Neutral MPC guidance points to underperformance – Commerzbank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Tatha Ghose at Commerzbank expects Poland’s NBP to leave rates at 3.75%, with forwards already reflecting this. With inflation momentum near zero and energy-driven disinflation back, earlier hike bets have been unwound and some analysts now discuss potential easing from Q4 or March 2027. Commerzbank sees this shift eroding PLN’s carry and supporting underperformance versus CZK. Rate-hike narrative replaced by easing talk “Headline CPI slowed to 2.5%y/y in June, weaker than consensus; more importantly, the month-on-month price change turned negative and, after seasonal-adjustment and smoothing, worked out to near-zero. In other words, the recent oil shock did not generate a lasting impulse; disinflationary forces in food and energy have re-asserted themselves.” “As we commented earlier, FRA contracts had been pricing in possible hikes later in 2026 only a month ago –