The post Aluminium: Price outlook shifts lower as market rebalances – TD Securities appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
TD Securities strategists have downgraded its Aluminium price outlook as supply recovers and demand softens. They now expect Aluminium to average $3,378/t in 2026 and $3,281/t in 2027, projecting smaller deficits and a move toward market balance while still ruling out a major rout. Prices seen lower but supported “Speedier Middle East smelter ramp-ups, increased Indonesian supply, robust Chinese semi-fabricated exports, and weaker demand have prompted TD Commodity Strategy to downgrade our aluminium price outlook. As the market moves closer to supply-demand balance next year, we expect prices to average $3,378/t in 2026 and $3,281/t in 2027, down 5.0% and 9.8% from the previous forecast.” “We now project deficits of 1.2 million tonnes and 234 thousand tonnes in 2026 and 2027, respectively. This stands in sharp contrast to the earlier consensus view of a 2.5-3.0 milli
The partnership could accelerate AI innovation in the Middle East, enhancing regional tech capabilities and influencing global AI dynamics.
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The post US Dollar: Fed minutes flag supply-driven inflation risks – TD Securities appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
TD Securities strategists highlight that the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes showed rising concern over inflation risks, even as the United States (US) labor market remains stable. Some participants saw a case for a June hike but backed holding rates, while most signaled willingness to pursue further policy firming if supply-side shocks, including Oil and tariffs, push inflation higher. Fed minutes stress hawkish supply risks “The June FOMC minutes showed participants concerned about rising inflation risks. “A few” participants saw the case for hiking in June, but still supported keeping rates on hold.” “The minutes also noted that the labor market remained stable, and that inflation risks were rising due to AI, tariffs, supply chain disruptions, and higher oil prices. However, in a hawkish development, “most” participants saw the case for “policy fi
The post Gold struggles for momentum as US-Iran tensions, hawkish Fed bets weigh appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Gold (XAU/USD) consolidates modest gains on Thursday, although upside remains limited as renewed hostilities in the Middle East revive concerns over energy-driven inflation and reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to raise interest rates. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,102, up 0.66% on the day. The United States (US) and Iran exchanged another round of attacks overnight. US President Donald Trump said on Truth Social, “This is in retribution for yesterday’s bombing of ships by Iran. If it happens again, it will get much worse!” On Wednesday, Iran reiterated its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz if fresh attacks occur, raising concerns that global Oil flows could once again be disrupted after improving following last month’s interim peace agreement. The latest escalation has weakened hopes for a permanent peace agreement
Escalating US-Iran tensions risk broader Middle East conflict, impacting global markets and complicating monetary policy amid rising oil prices.
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The post US Dollar: Constructive outlook as Oil risks build – OCBC appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note renewed Middle East tensions and higher Oil prices are lifting the US Dollar (USD) and global bond yields. They expect the USD to appreciate by 2–3% in 2H26 versus lower-yielding currencies like the Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen (JPY) and Swiss Franc (CHF), with a larger rally contingent on a sharper Oil spike or US overheating. Geopolitics and energy underpin Dollar “We continue to expect the USD to appreciate by 2-3% in 2H26 and remain constructive on the currency against lower-yielding peers, including the EUR, JPY and CHF.” “A more significant move of over 5% remains a tail risk and would likely require either oil prices rising above USD100/bbl or renewed signs of US economic overheating, such as falling unemployment and firmer medium-term inflation expectations, rather than a soft-landing outcome.” “At around USD78/bbl, Brent crude remai
The post Forex Today: Markets overlook escalating tensions in Middle East appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, July 9: The US Dollar (USD) struggles to find demand early Thursday despite a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The US economic calendar will feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales data for June. Investors will also keep a close eye on comments from central bank officials. US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.14% -0.20% -0.15% 0.06% -0.09% -0.54% -0.22% EUR 0.14% -0.06% 0.00% 0.20% 0.08% -0.36% -0.06% GBP 0.20% 0.06% 0.07% 0.26% 0.14% -0.30% 0.00% JPY 0.15% 0.00% -0.07% 0.19% 0.09% -0.38% -0.06% CAD -0.06% -0.20% -0.26% -0.19% -0.12% -0.57% -0.26% AUD 0.09% -0.08% -0.14% -0.09% 0.12% -0.44% -0.12% NZD 0.54% 0.36% 0
Indonesia's Russian oil deal, potentially settled in crypto, could reshape regional energy dynamics and provoke international regulatory scrutiny.
The post Indonesia receives first Russian oil shipment after deal with Moscow, raising questions about crypto settlement appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
The post Oil: Risk premium returns on Gulf supply concerns – Commerzbank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen argues that recent US policy towards Iran has reversed market expectations of a rapid normalisation in Gulf energy supplies, challenging earlier pricing of an Oil supply glut. With the Iran deal apparently called off by President Trump, she notes that Middle East risks remain unresolved, implying a renewed risk premium and potential volatility in energy prices. US stance revives supply risk “Over the past few days we had expressed scepticism about the rapid decline in the oil price, not least because shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has picked up but still remains well below pre-war levels. The market, however, appeared to look straight through this and was already pricing in supply glut on the oil market.” “It turns out that the US administration shares our sceptical assessment of the oil supply situation rather than the market’s. And