Canadian Dollar: Labour data seen softening – TD Securities

The post Canadian Dollar gains after June jobs report tops forecasts appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday after stronger-than-expected Canadian employment data. At the time of writing, USD/CAD is trading around 1.4160 after falling to a more than two-week low of 1.4136. Statistics Canada reported that the economy added 18.2K jobs in June, exceeding market expectations of 10K. However, the reading was sharply lower than the 87.8K increase recorded in May. The Unemployment Rate eased to 6.5% from 6.6%. As labor market conditions remain uneven, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach, with policymakers expected to leave interest rates unchanged in the coming months while monitoring inflation risks, particularly those stemming from higher energy prices. Energy-driven inflation risks are back in focus after Oil prices rose earlier this week following renewed hostilities in the Middle E

The post “The bar for a material hawkish turn is high”: ING says the Bank of Canada won’t surprise next week appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is outperforming the US Dollar in the short term, pulling the USD/CAD pair down from recent multi-month highs. This corrective move comes at a crucial juncture, as global markets look ahead to the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) upcoming policy meeting. While technical indicators suggest that the Greenback’s premium over the Loonie is overextended relative to bond yields, fundamental analysts caution that domestic softness and looming trade risks will ultimately limit the Canadian Dollar’s scope for a sustained recovery. USD/CAD daily chart. Source: FXStreet. Tactically expensive premium leaves USD/CAD vulnerable to a deeper pullback Societe Generale points out that the US Dollar’s recent rally against the Canadian Dollar has become fundamentally detached from underlying fixed-income markets. After encountering a firm ceiling

The post Canadian Dollar: Firmer against US Dollar – Societe Generale appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Societe Generale strategists highlight that USD/CAD is tactically expensive versus the 2-year spread and has recently met resistance near 1.4250 before retracing toward 1.4130. They view this area as potential support but warn that a break lower could trigger a deeper pullback toward 1.4075 and the 50-DMA near 1.3950, framing near-term downside risks for the pair. Key support eyed near 1.4130 “USD/CAD encountered interim resistance around 1.4250 last month and has since retraced toward the upper boundary of its previous broad consolidation range near 1.4130, which could serve as a potential support.” “It will be interesting to observe whether the pair can hold above this support.” “Should a break below 1.4130 materialize, USD/CAD may embark on a deeper pullback.” “The next objectives could be located at projections of 1.4075, followed by the 50-DMA near 1.3950.” “USD/CAD expensive

The post Canadian Dollar: Jobs and BoC caution shape outlook – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. ING’s Francesco Pesole highlights that Canada’s June jobs report is expected to show a sharp slowdown in hiring and a pickup in wage growth. He argues the bar for a hawkish shift by the Bank of Canada (BoC) remains high, with benign inflation and USMCA-related risks limiting hike prospects. ING sees CAD supported near term but does not expect USD/CAD below 1.40 in coming months. Data and policy temper Loonie upside “Canada releases jobs data for June today. Expectations are for a marked slowdown in hiring to 10k after May’s big 88k, with unemployment staying at 6.6%. The focus will be on permanent employees’ hourly wages, which are expected to increase from 3.2% to 3.6%.” “We think the bar for a material hawkish turn by the Bank of Canada is high, and we don’t expect surprises at next week’s meeting. Unless oil rallies back to April-May levels, the inflation outlook remains too benig

The post Canadian Dollar strengthens as receding Fed rate hike bets weigh US Dollar appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The USD/CAD pair loses momentum to near 1.4145 during the early European session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) on receding expectations of a rate increase from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The minutes from the Fed’s June 16 to 17 meeting, the first under new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, showed concern about high inflation mounted among policymakers, and a few participants saw a case to hike the interest rates. New York Fed President John Williams said on Thursday that despite the resumption of hostilities in the Middle East, he was not looking for a sustained rise in ‌energy prices over the remainder of the year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, expectations for a rate hike of at least 25 basis points (bps) at the July meeting eased back to 24.6% from 31% in the prior session, but up from 18.2% a week ago. For the September

The post South Korean Won: Rally versus sustained USD strength – TD Securities appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. TD Securities’ Macro Research team, led by Howard Du with contributions from Jayati Bharadwaj and Linda Cheng, analyzes the recent Korean Won rally and its impact on USD/KRW. They argue that despite KRW strength, the broader US Dollar (USD) uptrend against South Korean Won (KRW) remains intact and is likely to persist until a new bearish USD cycle emerges, highlighting key technical levels and intervention risks. USD/KRW uptrend seen resilient “KRW is in focus for FX market as it has been the best-performing major currency in July. KRW outperformance is notable in light of rising crude oil price on resurgence of Middle East geopolitical risk and falling equity prices for semiconductor stocks.” “Recent KRW rally has caught the FX market’s attention, and we discuss our outlook for USD/KRW. We believe the USD/KRW uptrend should remain in place until a new bearish USD wave fo

The post Canadian Dollar: Sentiment improves as risks fade against US Dollar – Scotiabank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is flat on Thursday but modestly firmer versus the US Dollar (USD) this week, making it a mild outperformer. They argue much bad news is already priced into CAD and that short-term USD/CAD risk reversals and improving Canadian data support a more constructive near-term view as front-end spreads stabilize. Overbought Dollar faces firm resistance “The CAD is all but flat on the day but retains a modestly firmer tone on the USD overall through the week so far, leaving it as a modest outperformer since Monday.” “The shift lower in short-term USDCAD risk reversals reflects a general sentiment shift against the USD but we also note some recent improvement in relative economic reports (reflecting slightly better than forecast, but still soft, Canadian data) which has tilted the US/Can

The post Canadian Dollar holds in range as weaker US Dollar offsets lower Oil prices appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. USD/CAD trades around 1.4170 on Thursday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day, as weakness in the US Dollar (USD) offsets the negative impact of lower Oil prices on the Canadian Dollar (CAD). The Canadian Dollar remains under pressure as Crude Oil prices extend their corrective pullback after the recent geopolitical-driven rally. Although tensions in the Middle East remain elevated after the United States (US) and Iran exchanged military strikes for a second consecutive day, traders appear to be unwinding part of their recent bullish Oil positions, weighing on the commodity-linked Loonie. Still, downside pressure on the Canadian currency remains limited by expectations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) could resume tightening later this year. The central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% in June, while swap markets now price roughly a 60% ch