#georgette boele

The post Japanese Yen: Market probes intervention risk – ABN AMRO appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Georgette Boele at ABN AMRO highlights persistent weakness in the Japanese Yen as investors test authorities’ tolerance for depreciation. Fiscal expansion and a dovish Bank of Japan stance weigh on the currency, while Japan’s energy-importer status adds pressure. With stretched long-Dollar/short-Yen positioning and explicit upside levels, she warns that any intervention-driven reversal in USD/JPY could be sharp and lasting. Authorities’ tolerance for yen weakness “Despite these factors, we noted in last week’s FX Weekly that the risk of intervention in the yen had increased.” “USD/JPY is now approaching last week’s high of 162.84 and could move towards 164.50.” “The fact that intervention has not yet happened does not mean it will not happen.” “As we mentioned last week, positioning remains stretched: the market is long US dollars and very short yen.” “If sentiment turns in favour of

The post New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ tightening supports upside – ABN AMRO appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. ABN AMRO’s Georgette Boele reports that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifted its policy rate by 25 bp to 2.5% and signalled more tightening is likely. Despite some easing in energy prices, the bank sees persistent inflation pressures and scope for further reduction in stimulus. With markets pricing additional hikes, ABN AMRO expects modest upside for the New Zealand Dollar versus the US Dollar. RBNZ hikes and signals further tightening “This week, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its policy rate by 25bp to 2.5%.” “It also said that, with inflation still above target and economic activity expected to strengthen, further reduction in monetary stimulus is likely to be needed to bring inflation back to the 2% target midpoint.” “Future OCR decisions will depend on incoming data, price-setting behaviour and the strength of economic activity, and how these factors affect medium

The post Euro: Energy repricing shapes outlook against US Dollar – ABN AMRO appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. ABN AMRO’s Georgette Boele notes that the Euro’s relationship with energy prices has evolved, with recent Oil and Gas gains again weighing on EUR/USD. Earlier in the US-Iran conflict, higher energy prices hurt the Euro (EUR), but later the pair became more driven by Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) expectations. She now sees EUR/USD guided by central bank expectations, yield spreads and Eurozone energy risks. Euro sensitivity returns to energy moves “At the start of the US-Iran conflict, higher energy prices weighed on the euro against the US dollar. During the conflict, however, EUR/USD became less sensitive to energy prices and more sensitive to expectations for the Fed and the ECB.” “When a Memorandum of Understanding was announced, energy prices fell sharply, but the euro gained little against the US dollar because markets were focused on expectation