New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ tightening supports upside – ABN AMRO

The post Japanese Yen: Market probes intervention risk – ABN AMRO appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Georgette Boele at ABN AMRO highlights persistent weakness in the Japanese Yen as investors test authorities’ tolerance for depreciation. Fiscal expansion and a dovish Bank of Japan stance weigh on the currency, while Japan’s energy-importer status adds pressure. With stretched long-Dollar/short-Yen positioning and explicit upside levels, she warns that any intervention-driven reversal in USD/JPY could be sharp and lasting. Authorities’ tolerance for yen weakness “Despite these factors, we noted in last week’s FX Weekly that the risk of intervention in the yen had increased.” “USD/JPY is now approaching last week’s high of 162.84 and could move towards 164.50.” “The fact that intervention has not yet happened does not mean it will not happen.” “As we mentioned last week, positioning remains stretched: the market is long US dollars and very short yen.” “If sentiment turns in favour of

The post Euro: Energy repricing shapes outlook against US Dollar – ABN AMRO appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. ABN AMRO’s Georgette Boele notes that the Euro’s relationship with energy prices has evolved, with recent Oil and Gas gains again weighing on EUR/USD. Earlier in the US-Iran conflict, higher energy prices hurt the Euro (EUR), but later the pair became more driven by Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) expectations. She now sees EUR/USD guided by central bank expectations, yield spreads and Eurozone energy risks. Euro sensitivity returns to energy moves “At the start of the US-Iran conflict, higher energy prices weighed on the euro against the US dollar. During the conflict, however, EUR/USD became less sensitive to energy prices and more sensitive to expectations for the Fed and the ECB.” “When a Memorandum of Understanding was announced, energy prices fell sharply, but the euro gained little against the US dollar because markets were focused on expectation

The post New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ hike underpins kiwi – ING appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. ING’s Francesco Pesole reports that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised rates to 2.50%, delivering a more hawkish message than expected and signalling further tightening is likely. He notes consensus within the Committee, sees another hike around September or October, but stresses dovish risks later in 2026 and maintains a 0.59 NZD/USD target by year-end. Further tightening signalled by rbnz “The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked rates by 25bp to 2.50% today, in line with our call. The accompanying message had a more hawkish tone overall than we had anticipated, though. The statement reads that further hikes “appear likely at upcoming meetings”, even if their timing is “highly uncertain”.” “There is still plenty of uncertainty around the inflation outlook, but the Bank stressed how non-tradable inflation had been persistent even before the war.” “We had suspected a close vote spli

The post New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ hikes but warns of more – BNY appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. BNY’s Geoff Yu reports that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25bp to 2.50% to steer inflation back to 2%. The committee still sees further removal of stimulus as likely, though data will guide decisions. The partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has eased Oil-related inflation pressures, but the earlier shock hurt New Zealand’s Q2 growth, with recovery expected in Q3 as confidence improves. Policy tightening keeps inflation in focus “The RBNZ has hiked its OCR by 25bp to 2.50%, seeking to return inflation to the 2% target.” “The committee continues to expect that further removal of monetary stimulus may be required, although future policy decisions will be guided by incoming data, inflation dynamics and economic activity.” “It said the recent partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz had lowered global oil and petrochemical prices, easing

The post New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ hawkish path supports currency – BBH appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad reports that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered a 25 bps hike to 2.50%, largely priced in, triggering an New Zealand Dollar (NZD) rally before gains were trimmed by Middle East tensions. Haddad highlights that the RBNZ sees further Official Cash Rate (OCR) increases as likely, has room to normalize towards a neutral 2.2–4.1% range, and markets price nearly 100 bps of tightening over the next year. Hawkish RBNZ and neutral OCR range “The RBNZ raised the Official Cash rate (OCR) by 25bps to 2.50%, the first hike in three years, and indicated that “further OCR increases appear likely at upcoming meetings.” The RBNZ did not disclose the Committee’s vote split but indicated that the decision to increase the OCR was reached by consensus.” “The RBNZ estimated neutral range is between 2.2% and 4.1%. The swaps curve implies nearly

The post New Zealand Dollar gives away gains amid renewed tensions in the Middle East appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) rally against the US Dollar (USD) has been short-lived, as the pair returned to sub-0.5700 levels during the European session after being rejected at the 0.5725 area earlier in the day. Market concerns about the status of the US-Iran ceasefire have hammered risk appetite, offsetting the positive Kiwi’s reaction to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) hawkish hike. US President Donald Trump affirmed earlier on Wednesday that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, and that, in his opinion, the memorandum of understanding “is over,” although he added that negotiators can “keep talking if they want.” These remarks come after the rival countries exchanged attacks earlier on the day and the US revoked Iran’s authorization to export Crude. The resumption of the hostilities has boosted US Treasury yields, sending the safe-haven US Dollar h

The post New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ hike seen as moderate tightening – MUFG appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. MUFG’s Derek Halpenny reports that the New Zealand Dollar strengthened after the RBNZ raised its policy rate by 25 bps to 2.50%, the first increase since May 2023. He notes OIS had largely priced the move and more hikes, but MUFG expects only two additional increases by March 2027. Communication is viewed as consistent with moderate tightening, with fragile domestic conditions limiting follow‑through NZD gains. RBNZ decision and NZD reaction “The only notable move for the US dollar this morning has been weaker versus the New Zealand dollar which was in response to the decision of the RBNZ to raise the key policy rate by 25bps to 2.50%, the first hike since May 2023. The OIS market yesterday had 18bps priced for today and 85bps over the coming twelve months.” “We expected this move, but have only two further hikes priced by March 2027, slightly less than implied by the OIS curv

The post New Zealand Dollar: Hawkish RBNZ but kiwi seen vulnerable – Commerzbank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur reports the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lifted the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 2.5%, with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gaining slightly versus US Dollar (USD). RBNZ’s tone was more hawkish than expected, addressing structural inflation risks, and Commerzbank still looks for one more hike. However, they see market pricing of three additional hikes as excessive, expecting kiwi weakness once expectations are pared back. Market overpricing future OCR hikes “As we expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the official cash rate (OCR) this morning to 2.5%. The kiwi reacted positively to this move and gained slightly against the USD after having fallen significantly in recent weeks. In its statement, however, the central bank’s tone was, on the whole, perhaps a bit more hawkish than we would have expected.” “We, too, had anticipated a c